Lake Wind Advisory 9, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
410 AM EST THU JAN 25 2007

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW UPSLOPE CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE
NC MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. INCREASING NW FLOW...PASSING VORT
MAX...AND IDEAL CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ISO TO
SCT SHSN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TN BORDER AREAS. A WEB CAM NEAR
BANNER ELK SHOWS A FEW FLURRIES CURRENTLY FALLING.

SNOW FALL RATES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING AS CAA
CONTINUES AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASE. RUC40 AND W/V IMAGES INDICATES A
W/V NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME...WHICH IS A LITTLE WEST OF THE
0Z GFS. THE VORT SHOULD PASS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE VORT PASSES...CAA WILL MAKE THE GREATEST
SURGE AND LLVL EPV BECOMES MORE DEFINED. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
SEVERAL BANDS OF SHSN TO PASS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN
18-0Z. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A 3-6 HR WINDOW
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE PROFILES AND DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. AFTER 0Z...NW FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...APPROACHING 50 KTS AT H85 AFTER 3Z.
THESE WINDS SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE REMAINING SHALLOW MOISTURE TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THE AREA FROM AVERY TO MADISON COUNTIES SHOULD SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL...AVERAGING 3 INCHES AND UP TO 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. BLOWING SNOW AND WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW ZERO
SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 6Z FRI. THE LATEST
FORECAST AGREES WELL WITH THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AND
ADVISORIES. IN ADDITION...AREAS ADJACENT TO THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHTED
AREA MAY SEE WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

EAST OF THE MTNS...TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY AND GUSTY.
CIRRUS SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS STRONG CAA ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDES
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD...WITH TEENS
NORTH AND L20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW REMAINING FRIDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SNOW SHOWERS END AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DRIES UP. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY AS POLAR VORTEX
PULLS EAST AND FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW
EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS...BUT DID TREND TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE. MODELS
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF THE EJECTING SW LOW...
BUT NAM SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN OTHERS. THAT SAID...21Z SREF IS
LENDING SOME CREDENCE TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION. THE SREF ALSO
INDICATES LIGHT PRECIP LIKELY FOR THE CWFA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
BROUGHT SOME CHC POP INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS AND NE GA...AND SLIGHT
CHC EAST OF THERE. GFS IS COLDER THAN THE NAM INDICATING P-TYPE
WOULD BE ALL SNOW FOR THE NC MTNS. USING A MODEL BLEND...PRODUCES A
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW P-TYPE. THEREFORE HAVE RAIN OR SNOW MENTIONED
THERE WITH RAIN TO THE SOUTH. ANY PRECIP PRODUCED BY THE GULF LOW
ENDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SIMILAR P-TYPE BREAK UP. NW FLOW SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A BREAK IN THE PRECIP
MONDAY...THEN A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND NORTHWEST FLOW BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHC POP. DRY
FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY RETURNING TO BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z-06Z/...
THE PERSISTENT BKN TO OVC CIRRUS THAT AS REMAINED OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
AFTERNOON. THE THINNING CIRRUS WILL RESULT IN FEW TO SCT SKY COVER
EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MTNS WILL
SEE WIDESPREAD CAA AND NW FLOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING...AND
PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF THE CAA WILL
RESULT A 5 TO 6 KFT THICK MIXING LAYER AFTER NOON. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
WITHIN THE MIXING LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY CONDITIONS AFTER
15-18Z. THE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE GREATEST AT KAVL...WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-048>050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ051>053-
     058-059-062.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NCZ063>065-501-503-505-507-509.

SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
606 AM EST WED JAN 24 2007

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-251100-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
606 AM EST WED JAN 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. WINDY
CONDITIONS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 10 BELOW ZERO. A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST URGENT WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CAEWSWGSP...
FOR DETAILS. A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS NOT IN THE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-251100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
606 AM EST WED JAN 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.