Freeze Warning 7, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
248 AM EDT MON APR 16 2007

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXPECTED HIGH WINDS DEVELOPED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND ARE
CONTINUING AT THIS TIME IN MANY PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
FOOTHILLS. COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES HAVE ENDED FOR
THE MOST PART...BUT THE GRADIENT ACTUALLY TIGHTENS DURING THE COURSE
OF THE DAY AS THE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND GOES NOWHERE FAST. THEREFORE
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOWL THROUGH THE FAVORED NW ORIENTED
VALLEYS AND GAPS EARLY TODAY...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION LATER IN THE MORNING. SEVERAL
TOWNS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ARE REPORTING WIDESPREAD POWER
OUTAGES ATTM.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE VERY STRONG H8 WINDS FOR THAT MODEL WITH
50+ KTS ALONG THE LEE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...THOSE WINDS INCREASE TO 65 KTS I WON/T EVEN MENTION THE
NAM WHICH TENDS TO OVERDO IT WITH LEE SIDE MOUNTAIN WAVES. LOOKING
AT THE MOS GUIDANCE THE MET HAS AN INCREDIBLE 47 KT SUSTAINED WIND
AT KAVL AT 15 UTC AND 46 KTS AT 18 UTC. THE MAV HAS 36 KTS AT 15
UTC...VERY HIGH FOR THE MAV. SO AN ALREADY BAD SITUATION IN THE
MTNS AND THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS IS LIKELY TO GET WORSE. 70 MPH WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WE START TO SEE A CONTRIBUTION FROM AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG H7 JET. I/LL LEAVE IF FOR THE DAY CREW TO
EXTEND THE WARNING INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...BUT THAT CERTAINLY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NEED TO BE DONE IN SOME AREAS.

I/M ALSO GOING TO EXPAND THE WARNING INTO CATAWBA AND ALEXANDER
COUNTIES. QUITE A FEW TREES AND LINES HAVE FALLEN THERE
OVERNIGHT...AND AS WE START TO MIX...THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS WILL SEE
STRONG GUSTS AGAIN LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS TECHNICALLY WERE NOT UNDER A HIGH WIND WARNING DUE TO
THE WINTER STORM WARNING. I AM GOING TO CANCEL THE WSW WITH THIS
PACKAGE AND HOIST A HIGH WIND WARNING AS THE PUBLIC IMPACT FROM
WINDS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER THAN FROM MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW.

WILL EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TODAY...WITH THE MENTION OF GUSTS TO 50 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS WHAT I/M SEEING AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS. IT WOULDN/T TAKE MUCH FOR
THESE AREAS TO SEE HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA DAMAGE EITHER...AND WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THINGS CLOSELY

AND FINALLY...HAVE UPGRADED THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR
TONIGHT. IT/S GOING TO BE CLOSE ON AVERAGE WITH LOTS OF MIXING IN
SOME PLACES...BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL
DEFINITELY FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REST OF THE FORECAST IS QUIETER...BUT THE SYSTEM WED/THU IS QUITE
COMPLEX AND HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE GFS AND NAM. WILL CARRY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WESTERN HALF ON WED AS A NOD TO THE STRONGER SRN
STREAM LOW ON THE GFS. WON/T MAKE ANY CHANGES INTO THU DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z-06Z/...
MAINLY A WIND FORECAST THIS PERIOD...BUT WIND WILL BE A MAJOR
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN FACT...GUIDANCE FORECAST WIND
SPEEDS ARE THE HIGHEST THAT THIS FORECASTER CAN RECALL IN OVER 5
YEARS. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN WIND OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT EXTREMELY GUSTY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WITH A
VENGEANCE BY MID-MORNING. PIEDMONT TERMINALS SHOULD GUST WELL INTO
THE 30 KT TERRITORY...WHILE KAVL SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM EXPERIENCING
FREQUENT 40-50 KT GUSTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN A BIT BY TOMORROW EVENING...BUT STILL REMAIN QUITE
STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ018-026-028-
     029.

NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-035-
     048>053-056-058-059-062>065-501>510.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ036-037-057-
     068>072-082.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>064.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063.

SC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>003.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ004>014-019.

&&

SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...JDL

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