Freeze Warning 6, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
303 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH RUN THROUGH 10 UTC. THE PRODUCT MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED...BUT WE CAN WORRY ABOUT THAT IN A COUPLE HOURS.
PCPN HAS REDEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LLVL FLOW
BACKS AN UPPER DIFFLUENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. IN FACT...HODOGRAPHS LOOK QUITE INTERESTING THROUGH 12 UTC
AND WE MAY NOT HAVE SEEN THE LAST OF THE TORNADO THREAT THROUGH
SUNRISE IN THE EASTERN ZONES. LATER THIS AFTERNOON FREEZING LEVELS
WILL BE VERY LOW. BOTH THE MAV AND NAM HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE IN
THE NC PIEDMONT AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS..ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
LOW EL/S...SO A FEW SEVERE HAIL EVENTS LOOKS QUITE POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA LATER IN THE DAY.

HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING IN ALL THE
COUNTIES WHERE THE WATCH IT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT. THIS INCLUDES
THE MOUNTAINS OF NC...SC AND NE GA AND THE WESTERN NC FOOTHILLS.
PLAN TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY EAST OF THERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AS
WINDS COULD GUSTS INTO THE MID 40 MPH RANGE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION MIXING MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WIND THREAT WILL BE WITH US FOR A WHILE. MET GUIDANCE HAS
MID 30 KT SUSTAINED WINDS AT KAVL TMRW...BUT THIS IS PROBABLY A BIT
ON THE HIGH SIDE. FOR NOW WILL JUST RUN THE WARNING THROUGH THE END
OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS JUDGE WHETHER IT NEEDS
TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME OR SPACE. I THINK WE HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SEEING DAMAGING WINDS IN THESE AREAS LATE TODAY AS THE GFS HAS 60+
KT H8 WINDS OVER A GOOD BIT OF THE FA...QUITE RARE FOR THE GFS.

THE OTHER ISSUE FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IS SNOWFALL. TEMPS FALL
DRAMATICALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LOW ROUNDS INTO THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY
DROP AND WE SHOULD SEE A BURST OF 3 TO 6 HRS OF HEAVY SNOW ABOVE
3500 FEET BEGINNING 18 UTC IN THE SW AND SPREADING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE HIGH TERRAIN BY AROUND 2100 UTC. I HAVE ISSUED A WARNING FOR
ALL ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THROUGH NOON
TOMORROW...BUT JUST FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR FROM MADISON COUNTY DOWN TO SWAIN. THIS LINES UP WITH A LOCAL
SNOW TOOL THAT WE USE...AND MAKES SENSE WITH THE RATHER WARM H8
TEMPS.

RUNNING OUT OF TIME...SO I WON/T GO INTO DETAIL ON LATER TIME
PERIODS...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT ALONG THE LEE AND WINDS MAY NOT ABATE IN SOME OF
THE MOUNTAIN GAPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z-06Z/...
A COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS...AS GUIDANCE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. LIFR
CIGS/IFR VISBY WERE ONGOING AT MOST TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KAVL AT
06Z. THIS APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS
DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KGSP TO KCLT. WE DON/T EXPECT
THIS BOUNDARY TO MOVE A WHOLE LOT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT HAVE TO MOVE FAR TO CREATE HAVOC WITH CIGS/
VISBY. IN ADDITION...HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE AREA MAY
ACTUALLY IMPROVE THE LOW CIGS/VISBY FROM TIME TO TIME...MAKING THE
SITUATION EVEN MORE COMPLEX. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH INDICATE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 12Z.
AFTERWARDS...CIGS SHOULD INCREASE TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BECOME VERY
STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     GAZ010-017.

NC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-501>510.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NCZ048-051-052.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 12 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NCZ033-049-050.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-502-504.

SC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     SCZ001>003.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SCZ009-014.

&&

SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...JDL

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