Alert archive / Michigan / Special Weather Statements in 2007
Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Rapids, MI
NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued this special weather statement at Aug 7, 2007, 6:53 PM EDT for Calhoun County, Michigan. It was in force for 52 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 7, 2007, 6:53 PM EDT (22:53 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 7, 2007, 7:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 52 min
- Issued by
- NWS Grand Rapids, MI
County Calhoun County, MI
The radar
The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 741 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -31 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 857 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 57 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 97 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.2
- Supercell composite
- 1.8
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Rapids, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 7, 3:56 PM EDT, 2 hours 57 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 7, 3:56 PM EDT, 2 hours 57 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 400 PM TUE AUG 7 2007 LATEST UPDATE...ALL SECTIONS EXCEPT AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... (400 PM TUE AUG 7 2007) LOW PRESSURE AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL EXIST THIS EVENING BEFORE THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH... THEN AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS HUMID CONDITIONS LINGER OVER THE AREA. A DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. && .SHORT TERM... (400 PM TUE AUG 7 2007) SB CAPES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. BEST CHANCE OF SVR WX THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND ALSO WHERE MSAS/MODELS SHOW BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE ONLY SMALL CHANCE POPS SEEM WARRANTED THIS EVENING AS WEAK SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT SLIDE EAST FROM WI. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A PUSH OF DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT... WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NRN CWFA. SINCE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD UP AROUND 70 WITH WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT... WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FOG. AFTER ANY STRATUS/FOG PATCHES MIX OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING... DRY AIR MASS SHOWN IN RH OVERVIEWS SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM/HUMID AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWFA. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE RIDING EAST THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IS PROGGED THE AFFECT THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW SINCE MODELS DIFFER ON POSITION/TIMING OF SURFACE LOWS AND QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WHICH ARE ADVERSELY AFFECTING MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS. && .LONG TERM...(400 PM TUE AUG 7 2007) MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SUNDAY. THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE PLAINS. THAT WILL PRODUCE A NW WIND FLOW ALOFT BY NEXT MONDAY AND GENERALLY DRY WX. THE GFS ENSEMBLES/ECMWF/DGEX/CANADIAN MODELS ALL BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES. HAVE OPTED TO PUT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN SUNDAY. THE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS DRY. && .AVIATION... (142 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2007) PCPN HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA ATTM. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS BLANKETS THE TAF SITES BUT CLEARING IS MOVING INTO THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS CLEARING IS BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT IS MOVING NORTH. AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH...THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT...BUT CU WILL FORM. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL HIGH. ANY SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED AM. && .MARINE... (400 PM TUE AUG 7 2007) RELAXED/BAGGY SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LK MI WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS/WAVES TONIGHT. NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH UPR MI HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD WAVES TO 1-2 FEET ON WEDNESDAY... PARTICULARLY NORTH OF MKG. && .HYDROLOGY... (400 PM TUE AUG 7 2007) NO HYRDO PROBLEMS NOTED THUS FAR. HEAVIEST RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES FELL EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER SRN PORTIONS OF VAN BUREN AND KAZOO COUNTIES. ONLY POTENTIAL PROBLEM WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF CONVECTION MANAGES TO FORM/REPEAT OVER THIS SAME AREA. GUT FEELING IS THAT THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && SYNOPSIS: MEADE SHORT TERM: MEADE LONG TERM: 93 AVIATION: 93 MARINE: MEADE HYDROLOGY: MEADE
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 7, 11:33 AM EDT, 7 hours 20 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1133 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2007 MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-080915- MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON- MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON- INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON- 1133 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS TODAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HOLLAND TO LANSING. THUNDERSTORMS HAD ENDED OVER THE AREA AS OF 11 AM...BUT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 3 OR 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER... BUT HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. LOCALLY DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. IN ADDITION... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 3 PM TODAY. RAINFALL REPORTS WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS WELL. LMZ844>849-080915- ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND- HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL- WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE- 1133 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 3 PM TODAY SOUTH OF HOLLAND. WAVES MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR ON THURSDAY.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 7, 6:53 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 653 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2007 MIZ073-072345- CALHOUN- 653 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2007 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT... AT 647 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES WEST OF MARSHALL TO 12 MILES WEST OF HOMER...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...MARSHALL AND HOMER. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED. LAT...LON 4226 8525 4210 8518 4211 8477 4234 8483 93
The office that day
Everything else NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 1:37 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GRR | Muskegon, Oceana | 68 min |
| Aug 7, 2:27 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GRR | Allegan, Kalamazoo, Lake, Mason, Muskegon, Newaygo and 2 more | 78 min |
| Aug 7, 6:00 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GRR | Calhoun, Kalamazoo, Van Buren | 60 min |
| Aug 7, 7:06 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GRR | Calhoun, Jackson, Kalamazoo | 69 min |
| Aug 7, 7:08 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GRR | Jackson | 52 min |
| Aug 7, 7:17 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Jackson | 30 min |
| Aug 7, 7:58 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GRR | Jackson | 32 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Michigan, 2007Every special weather statement in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.