Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Grand Rapids, MI
NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 27, 2007, 4:45 PM EDT for Clare County, Isabella County, Michigan. It was in force for 45 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 27, 2007, 4:45 PM EDT (20:45 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 27, 2007, 5:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 45 min
- Issued by
- NWS Grand Rapids, MI
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
Counties Clare County, MI, Isabella County, MI
The radar
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 114 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 4:50 PM EDT | HAIL 0.75 | 2 N Farwell, MI | |
| Mar 27, 5:08 PM EDT | HAIL 0.88 | 7 Sw Harrison, MI |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 174 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 577 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -52 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 959 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 34 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 14 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 88 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS53 KGRR 272045 SVRGRR MIC035-073-272130- /O.NEW.KGRR.SV.W.0008.070327T2045Z-070327T2130Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 445 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2007 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CLARE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN ISABELLA COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN * UNTIL 530 PM EDT * AT 442 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FARWELL...OR ABOUT 10 MILES WEST OF CLARE... AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... FARWELL BY 500 PM EDT BROWNS CORNER BY 505 PM EDT DOVER BY 510 PM EDT CLARE BY 515 PM EDT VERNON CITY BY 525 PM EDT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. HAIL TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER...OR ROUGHLY THE SIZE OF A PENNY...IS EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. LAT...LON 4399 8486 4390 8511 4372 8487 4383 8459 $$ COBB
2 follow-up statements
000 WWUS53 KGRR 272108 SVSGRR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 507 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2007 MIC035-073-272130- /O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-070327T2130Z/ CLARE MI-ISABELLA MI- 507 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2007 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT FOR ISABELLA AND CLARE COUNTIES... AT 503 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VERNON CITY...OR ABOUT NEAR CLARE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... HERRICK BY 515 PM EDT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT. LAT...LON 4399 8486 4390 8511 4372 8487 4383 8462 $$ LAURENS
000 WWUS53 KGRR 272133 SVSGRR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 531 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2007 MIC035-073-272141- /O.EXP.KGRR.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-070327T2130Z/ CLARE MI-ISABELLA MI- 531 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2007 ...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ISABELLA AND CLARE COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND ARE NO LONGER SEVERE. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER STRONG STORMS CONTINUE IN THE AREA AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS. LAT...LON 4399 8486 4390 8511 4372 8487 4383 8462 $$ LAURENS
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Rapids, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 27, 4:30 PM EDT, 15 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 27, 4:30 PM EDT, 15 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 430 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2007 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MAIN FORECASTING CONCERN DEALS WITH CONVECTION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. LEAD/SHEARED ABSOLUTE VORTICITY WAVES ALSO CONTINUE TO SPIRAL OUT AHEAD OF THE PARENT VORTEX. AN AFOREMENTIONED LOBE (DCVA) HAS INTERACTED WITH PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND HAS BEEN MAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF +60KT JET STREAK...ALLOWING FOR ADEQUATE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD/SOUTH OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH HAD PLENTY OF MORNING SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY...CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPES GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG...AND SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES OF LESS THAN -2C. THE WIND PROFILES THIS AFTERNOON ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AND WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL WIND THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL OF UP TO 1 INCH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE APPROXIMATELY 1.2 INCHES WHICH FOR LATE MARCH RUN MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN A SLOW MOVER TO THIS POINT. THINKING THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE NUDGES THE FRONT THROUGH. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF A DETROIT TO GRAND RAPIDS LINE. EXPECTING INTENSITY TO WANE THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN ONTARIO WILL GAIN A FOOTHOLD ON LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL BE LIMITED TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED INTO NORTHERN OHIO/INDIANA AND WILL RESULT IN LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND BAROCLINIC ZONE BUBBLES UP IN RESPONSE TO LIFTING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WITH COLD EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON...AND RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE AREAS OF ADVECTION FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE HURON. && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR APART AND WEAKEN IN FAVOR OF THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES IN THE UPPER FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL REINFORCE THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUD COVER, COOLER TEMPS, AND STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LARGE UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. TRENDS IN THE 12Z GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE TO CONSOLIDATE THE ENERGY IN THE UPPER LOW WITH SLOWER TIMING ON ITS MOVEMENT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE CANADIAN AND EURO SOLUTIONS FROM RECENT DAYS AND ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TIMING FOR THIS WEEKEND. ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDED ABOUT A 12 HOUR DELAY IN TIMING OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION... A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY THE TROUGH AXIS IS POSITIONED THROUGH LAPEER...GENESEE...SHIAWASSEE...MACOMB COUNTIES IN EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN WHILE THE WESTWARD EXTENSION IS LOCATED OVER OCEANA...NEWAYGO...AND MONTCALM COUNTIES. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH AND HAVE AIDED IN DEVELOPING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LIMITED TO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN BUT RECENT DEVELOPMENT HAS TAKEN PLACE IN MACOMB COUNTY. EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT TO FILL IN ALONG THIS SURFACE FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDED SOLAR INSOLATION/HEATING. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE SURFACE ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COOL FRONT SINKS SOUTH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && CB/BT
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 27, 11:57 AM EDT, 4 hours 48 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC 1157 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2007 LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-281000- ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND- HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL- WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA- CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-MONTCALM-GRATIOT- OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-VAN BUREN- KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON- 1157 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALMA TO NEWAYGO TO MUSKEGON. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...HALF INCH HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN AS THEY MOVE EAST AT 30 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT PLANNED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. BT
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Mar 27, 2:53 PM EDT, 1 hour 52 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 253 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2007 MIZ051-057-271945- KENT-MONTCALM- 253 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2007 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT... AT 248 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HOWARD CITY...OR 17 MILES EAST OF NEWAYGO... MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE... HOWARD CITY...CORAL...TRUFANT...SAND LAKE...CEDAR SPRINGS AND GOWEN. GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. DUKE
Special weather statement, Mar 27, 3:15 PM EDT, 1 hour 30 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 315 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2007 MIZ051-271945- MONTCALM- 315 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2007 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT... AT 313 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EDMORE...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF STANTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...ENTRICAN...STANTON AND SHERIDAN. GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. DUKE
Special weather statement, Mar 27, 4:11 PM EDT, 34 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 411 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2007 MIZ051-052-057>059-272045- CLINTON-GRATIOT-IONIA-KENT-MONTCALM- 411 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2007 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT... AT 408 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ELSIE TO SPARTA... MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH. ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...ELSIE...SPARTA...ROCKFORD... BELDING...ST. JOHNS AND IONIA. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED. COBB
The office that day
Everything else NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 3:32 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Montcalm | 43 min |
| Mar 27, 4:33 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Ionia | 42 min |
| Mar 27, 5:53 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Barry, Eaton | 52 min |
| Mar 27, 6:35 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Ingham | 40 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Michigan, 2007Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.