Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 230059
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
900 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

MIC123-230130-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-070823T0130Z/
NEWAYGO MI-
900 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT
FOR NEWAYGO COUNTY...

AT 855 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM AETNA TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CROTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  OXBOW...NEWYAGO STATE PARK AND BIG PRAIRIE BY 905 PM EDT

REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP VERY RAPIDLY SO BE ALERT TO CHANGING
CONDITIONS. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE
OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4360 8602 4331 8602 4333 8559 4374 8558

$$

LAURENS

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 230124
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
924 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

MIC123-230134-
/O.EXP.KGRR.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-070823T0130Z/
NEWAYGO MI-
924 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NEWAYGO COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND ARE NO
LONGER SEVERE. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4360 8602 4331 8602 4333 8559 4374 8558

$$

LAURENS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
640 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

LATEST UPDATE...SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...(403 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007)
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY...AT WHICH
TIME A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH BRINGING DRY HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHERE
STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (640 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007)
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS STRETCHING FROM IOWA THROUGH
EASTERN WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND IS CROSSING THE
LAKE ATTM. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
IN ADVANCE OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS SOME CINH AND
AWAY FROM A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THUS THEY SHOULD WEAKEN A
BIT...BUT WON/T DISSIPATE. WE INCREASED POPS TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS
OVER THE NW CWA. MORE STORMS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI MOVES EASTWARD.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGD TO
REMAIN IN THE AREA. NAM HAS A 55 KNOT LLJ MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN AT 00Z IN THE EVENING. THIS MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE...BUT THE GFS HAS A 50 KNOT LLJ OVER THE LAKE AT THE SAME
TIME WHICH LENDS CREDENCE TO IT. IF THIS MATERIALIZES AND WE CAN
DEVELOP INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF AN OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING MCS
THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING. A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT WOULD BE IN
THE OFFING. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ AND THE
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION/DEVELOPING INSTABILITY NOT READY TO GET TOO
EXCITED JUST YET. WILL BE INTERESTED TO SEE HOW THE LLJ IS HANDLED
IN UPCOMING MODEL RUNS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MUCH THE SAME SCENARIO IS IN PLACE WITH A
WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM... (327 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007)
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART. A SFC LOW AND COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY SATURDAY. MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES...THE GFS BEING QUICKER...PRECLUDE REMOVING POPS
TOTALLY FROM THE GRIDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SREF POPS
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD
CLEAR THE CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING AFTER WHICH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND PROVIDE DRY WX UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(240 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007 )
WARM FRONT IS BASICALLY NORTH OF THE CWA ATTM. SCT CU WILL BE
VISIBLE THROUGH SUNSET. AS INSTABILITY RISES THIS AFTERNOON...WE
CAN/T RULE OUT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF A
FOCUS CHANCE/S AREN/T HIGH. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL COME
OVERNIGHT WHEN THE MCS OVER IOWA MOVES EAST. BASICALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME 3-5SM BR TONIGHT DUE TO
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ALSO TSRA VCNTY IS IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE... (403 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007)
WAVES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MANAGEABLE IN THE 1 TO 2 FOOT RANGE WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND. ON THURSDAY THOUGH...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS WAVES PUSH INTO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY... (403 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007)
A REAL CONCERN BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND COULD BE ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS IF WE CONTINUE TO GET MCS/S ROLLING THROUGH THE CWA. RIGHT
NOW...RIVERS ARE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR AUGUST...BUT THERE IS STILL
A WAYS TO GO TO GET TO BANKFULL AT MOST SITES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR RIVER LEVELS. A WARM...MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FUEL BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:   DUKE
SHORT TERM: DUKE/93
LONG TERM:  93
AVIATION:   93
MARINE:     DUKE
HYDROLOGY:  DUKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1021 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-230900-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
1021 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN SOME URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
BE EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 30 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN
ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OVER THE AREA. SEVERE
WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THE
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT... WITH
QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EACH DAY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LMZ844>849-230900-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-
1021 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG AND HAZE WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ON LAKE
MICHIGAN AS WARM...MOIST AIR MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BE EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 30 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN
ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OVER THE AREA. SEVERE
WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THE
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EACH DAY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MEADE/DUKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
313 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW ALAMO              42.37N 85.72W
08/22/2007                   KALAMAZOO          MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

0711 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E KALAMAZOO           42.27N 85.57W
08/22/2007                   KALAMAZOO          MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN AROUND THE CITY OF KALAMAZOO.
            CORRECTED FOR TIME BASED ON RADAR.

&&

BHOVING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
745 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-230045-
CLARE-CLINTON-GRATIOT-IONIA-ISABELLA-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-
MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-
745 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...

AT 744 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST MICHIGAN NORTH OF
A HOLLAND TO LOWELL LINE. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND MANY OF THE
STORMS WILL CONTAIN WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. A COUPLE OF
THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH.

KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY TONIGHT AND SEEK SHELTER IF THREATENING
WEATHER APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 4413 8639 4355 8648 4278 8616 4279 8447
      4348 8465 4413 8466

93