Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 271926
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
326 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

MIC025-271945-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0044.000000T0000Z-070627T1945Z/
CALHOUN MI-
326 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR CALHOUN COUNTY...

AT 325 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM WATTLES PARK TO ATHENS...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... 
  CERESCO...BURLINGTON...MARSHALL...WRIGHTS CORNERS...TEKONSHA...RICE
  CREEK...ECKFORD...CONDIT...CLARENDON...BENTLEYS CORNERS...
  BABCOCK...MARENGO...HOMER AND ALBION

DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MILES AN HOUR ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4235 8530 4208 8529 4208 8472 4233 8472

$$

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 271948
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
348 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

MIC025-271958-
/O.EXP.KGRR.SV.W.0044.000000T0000Z-070627T1945Z/
CALHOUN MI-
348 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CALHOUN COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO LONGER
SEVERE. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4235 8530 4208 8529 4208 8472 4233 8472

$$
OSTUNO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
130 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(1055 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007)
COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE MACKINAW
STRAITS...SOUTHWEST THROUGH MADISON WISCONSIN. WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
THIS SHOULD SLIDE NORTHEAST PERPENDICULAR TO THE COLD FRONT.
&&

.SHORT TERM... (1055 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007)
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE MAINTAINED AN
EASTWARD COMPONENT TO CONVECTION...AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN LOWEST 3 KM CONTINUE TO BE AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL...HOWEVER ISOLATED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE WIND...AS FRONT ENCROACHES AND FREEZING LEVEL LOWERS
THE THREAT COULD BECOME HAIL AND WIND.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...EXITING THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  JET DYNAMICS REMAINS WEAK
WITH MOISTURE POOLING BEING THE BEST SUPPORT OF PCPN.  WILL MAINTAIN
THE CHANCE POPS.  THE PCPN MAY LINGER NEAR THE I94 CORRIDOR AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO A SHORT WAVE CUTTING ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...SO WILL HAVE POPS THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT ON THURSDAY.  CLOUD COVER MAY BE STUBBORN TO MOVE AWAY FROM
I94 DUE TO THE WAVE TO THE SOUTH...HOWEVER THE REST OF CWA SHOULD
SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO
MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH THE 50S ON NORTHERLY
BREEZES.

A CRISP FRIDAY MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S NORTH...AND 50S
SOUTH...WILL WARM NICELY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
&&

.LONG TERM... (419 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007)
A PACIFIC ORIGIN SHORTWAVE PHASES WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA TO CREATE UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEMS ON BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COAST UNTIL MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A RATHER SHARP RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THAT TIME
FRAME. THAT PUTS LOWER MICHIGAN IN NORTHWEST FLOW FROM CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BEING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE
OF THE JET CORE... WEST MICHIGAN WILL SEE MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM BREAKS THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM ON THE NORTHERN STREAM INTO
THE GREAT LAKES IN THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. WHILE ALL OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM... THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST ON DIGGING
THE WAVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT REAL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.
&&

.AVIATION...(130 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007)
TWO ROUNDS OF WEATHER TO EXPRESS IN THE 18Z TAFS...BOTH IN THE FIRST
FEW HOURS. FIRST BATCH OF TSRA ATTM IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION AND WILL CONTINUE FROM LAN TO AZO NEXT HOUR OR
TWO THEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 19 AND 22Z...BRINGING
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STRATUS WITH CEILINGS AROUND
3000 FEET ATTEND THE FRONT. THINGS SHOULD FINALLY START TO CLEAR OUT
AFTER 23Z AS MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES IN.
&&

.MARINE... (1055 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007)
MINIMAL MIXING OVER THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT THIS MORNING...HAS
RESULTED IN A HAZY CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING. RIP CURRENTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF BREAKWALLS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY... (419 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007)
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.  THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON LOCAL RIVERS.  HOWEVER WITH
THE TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS...
SOME LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND/OR URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN A NEAR ANY PERSISTENT DOWNPOURS.
&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM: JK BEACHLER
LONG TERM: WDM
AVIATION: WDM
MARINE: BEACHLER
HYDROLOGY: JK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1220 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-281000-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
1220 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT ABOUT 15 TO 25 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

LMZ844>849-281000-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-
1220 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN FROM MANISTEE SOUTH TO ST JOSEPH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
EAST AT ABOUT 15 TO 25 MPH. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FEET IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD WAVES
IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO 3 TO 5 FEET. WAVES
OF THAT HEIGHT ARE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL WATER CRAFT. RIP CURRENTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING. THE WIND AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

WDM BEACHLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1036 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

MIZ066-067-271500-
EATON-INGHAM-
1036 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1026 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST WEST OF LANSING...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE...
LANSING...  EAST LANSING...     MASON...    HASLETT...
OKEMOS...   MERIDIAN...         WILLIAMSTON...

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.
BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY PRODUCE PONDING ON SOME
ROADWAYS...MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN.

LAT...LON 4274 8472 4261 8476 4255 8425 4278 8423

COBB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

MIZ059-271615-
CLINTON-
1149 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1141 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CLINTON COUNTY NEAR WESTPHALIA...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE
RILEY...    MERLE BEACH...  EAST DE WITT...
SLEEPY HOLLOW STATE PARK...

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.
REMEMBER IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK.

LAT...LON 4298 8481 4286 8481 4283 8437 4300 8437

COBB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1216 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

MIZ059-066-067-271645-
CLINTON-EATON-INGHAM-
1216 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1211 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM LANSING TO SLEEPY HOLLOW STATE
PARK. THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THE STORMS WILL MOST LOCATIONS IN EASTERN CLINTON COUNTY AND
NORTHEASTERN INGHAM COUNTY INCLUDING THE CITY OF LANSING THROUGH 200
PM EDT.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. IF
DRIVING SLOW DOWN OR PULL OFF THE SIDE OF THE ROAD TO AVOID
HYDROPLAINING.  MINOR STREET FLOODING IS LIKELY IN POORLY DRAINED
AREAS.

LAT...LON 4279 8493 4254 8493 4254 8416 4277 8415
      4278 8437 4309 8436

COBB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
103 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

MIZ066-073-271730-
CALHOUN-EATON-
103 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1257 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 8 MILES JUST NORTHEAST OF BATTLE CREEK...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS THROUGH 200 PM EDT...
RURAL TOWNSHIPS OF NORTHERN CALHOUN COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN
TOWNSHIPS OF EATON COUNTY INCLUDING INTERSTATE 69 BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 40 AND 55.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. IF
DRIVING SLOW DOWN OR PULL OF THE SIDE OF THE ROAD. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

LAT...LON 4244 8526 4233 8524 4230 8472 4251 8472

COBB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
220 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

MIZ046-271845-
ISABELLA-
220 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 213 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOUNT PLEASANT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS THROUGH 300 PM EDT...
THE CENTRAL TOWNSHIPS OF ISABELLA COUTNY INCLUDING MOUNT PLEASANT.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.
REMEMBER THAT IS YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK.

LAT...LON 4371 8508 4351 8508 4351 8461 4372 8461

COBB