Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 022145
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
543 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

MIC067-022215-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-070602T2215Z/
IONIA MI-
543 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT
FOR IONIA COUNTY...

AT 540 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE 
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE 
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COOKS CORNERS TO WEST 
SEBEWA...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  SHILOH...KENT CORNERS...FERGUSON CORNERS AND SEBEWA BY 550 PM EDT
  PALO...FROST CORNERS...COLLINS AND PORTLAND BY 555 PM EDT
  MUIR BY 600 PM EDT
  HUBBARDSTON BY 605 PM EDT

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
GRAND RAPIDS.

LAT...LON 4312 8530 4312 8484 4278 8485 4278 8531

$$
BEACHLER

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 022215
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
615 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

MIC067-022225-
/O.EXP.KGRR.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-070602T2215Z/
IONIA MI-
615 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR IONIA COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND ARE NO
LONGER SEVERE. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4312 8530 4312 8484 4278 8485 4278 8531

$$
BEACHLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
412 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTLY RAINFALL SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EVER SO SLOWLY.
THERE IS A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY DEPENDING
ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT AS
IT WAS TO MOVE IN. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY EVENING
AS THE UPPER COLD POOL MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE 65
DEGREES IN MANY AREAS ON MONDAY.

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE ACTING ON THE THERMAL DISCONTINUITY AND
POSSIBLE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL
BE OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD EDGE OF THE UPPER COLD POOL...WHICH IS
ALREADY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA WILL CROSS THE CWA BY MID
EVENING. THAT WILL PUSH AN AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THE
WEAK WIND FIELDS... ONLY PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED SO ONCE
THE SUN SETS...SO SHOULD THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. DUE TO THE
UPPER COLD POOL THE AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA INTO LATE EVENING. ONCE
THAT LINE GETS THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT OR SO ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. THERE SHOULD BE TO MUCH LAYERED CLOUDS TO GET MUCH IN THE
WAY OF DENSE FOG EVEN SO... SOME PATCHY FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. I DID NOT PUT THAT INTO THE ZONE WORDING AS I DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO BE A BIG DEAL.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE THE WETTEST DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA IN THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. THE UPPER LOW GOES NEGATIVE TILT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS LESS THAN 30 KNOTS
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
250 MB. THAT AND THE DEEP LAYERED CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT BY KEEPING CAPE VALUES MOSTLY BELOW 500 J/KG.
EVEN SO...BY LATE AFTERNOON THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CWA TO ADD FUEL TO THE CONVECTION.
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BE NEAR ONE AND A HALF INCHES. ALSO SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL STILL BE
IN THE 60S. MODEL SOUNDING DUE NOT SHOW MUCH OF A DRY LAYER EITHER.
GIVEN ALL OF THIS... IT WILL RAIN SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET COMING INTO THE PICTURE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN AND THAT
WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER THREAT. STILL UNTIL THE SINKING AIR BEHIND THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES IN THERE WILL BE THE THREAT INTO THE MID
EVENING.

MONDAY...THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME
INSTABILITY.  THUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM REMAIN
POSSIBLE. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE... AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FORECAST BELOW 5C... TEMPERATURES COULD WELL REMAIN THE LOWER TO MID
60S ACROSS THE CWA.  MONDAY WILL SEEM CHILLY COMPARED THE PAST WEEK.

MONDAY NIGHT... THE UPPER COLD CORE IS SHEARING OUT. IN SO DOING THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH. SOME CLEARING IS
POSSIBLE LATE. IF SO... LOWS COULD BE NEAR 40 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHERN CWA.

.LONG TERM... (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

HAVE ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER... SO WILL BE BRIEF.

FORECASTS FROM MID RANGE MODELS PRETTY STEADY STATE WITH ONE SLOW
STACKED WEATHER SYSTEM PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SLOW MOVING STACKED SYSTEM WITHIN TWO DAYS. WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AROUND MAJOR SYSTEMS... HAVE A BROAD BRUSH
30 TO 40 POP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ONLY OTHER CHANGES
WERE SMALL TWEAKS FOR COMPATIBILITY WITH NEIGHBORS. TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

WDM IOD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1055 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-030915-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-
CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-MONTCALM-GRATIOT-
OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-VAN BUREN-
KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
1055 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR AND WEST OF
ROUTE 131 BY MID AFTERNOON. THOSE STORMS SHOULD THEN SPREAD INLAND
TOWARD LANSING AND MOUNT PLEASANT BY EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OF
THOSE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THOSE ISOLATED STORMS WOULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ALL STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON MON AND TUE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COBB WDM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
359 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

MIZ044>046-051-056-057-022200-
NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MONTCALM-OTTAWA-KENT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREMONT...BIG RAPIDS...MOUNT PLEASANT...
GREENVILLE...JENISON...GRAND RAPIDS
359 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

AT 355 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN
OTTAWA COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN KENT COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST
NEWAYGO COUNTY. THE STORMS ALSO EXTENDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MONTCALM AND ISABELLA COUNTIES.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT AROUND 15 MPH AND
RANDOMLY DEVELOPING. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF NICKELS IN THE STRONGER CELLS.

EXPECT ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...HAIL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS AFTERNOON.

MEADE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
510 PM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             GRANDVILLE              42.90N 85.76W
06/02/2007  E0.75 INCH       KENT               MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            3/4 INCH HAIL AT 28TH AND BYRON CENTER

&&

GWETZEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
510 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

MIZ037>040-043>046-050-051-056>058-064-065-071-072-022200-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CLARE-IONIA-ISABELLA-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-
MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
500 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST NEAR ROUTE 131...

AT 457 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENT CITY TO 30 MILES
SOUTH OF KALAMAZOO...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL TO 3/4 OF AN INCH HAS BEEN REPORTED NEAR GRANDVILLE WITH THESE
STORMS AND JENISON HAD A WIND GUST TO 44 MPH AT 432 PM AS THE LINE
MOVED THROUGH THERE. BY 600 PM THE LINE OF STORMS WILL BE JUST WEST
OF GREENVILLE IN MONTCALM COUNTY TO NEAR BATTLE CREEK. STRONG
WINDS...VERY  HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL UP TO AN INCH AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS AS THE PASS
OVERHEAD.

WDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
523 PM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     TSTM WND GST     GRAND RAPIDS            42.96N 85.66W
06/02/2007  M68 MPH          KENT               MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            MEASURED DOWNTOWN GRAND RAPIDS

&&

NJJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
524 PM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND GST     GRAND RAPIDS            42.96N 85.66W
06/02/2007  M63 MPH          KENT               MI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            MEASURED AT GRAND RAPIDS ASOS

&&

NJJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
526 PM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             9 NE WHITE CLOUD        43.64N 85.65W
06/02/2007  E0.88 INCH       NEWAYGO            MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

NJJ