Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Allegan County, MI, Barry County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Clare County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lake County, MI, Mason County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Muskegon County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Oceana County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Van Buren County, MI

000 
WWUS83 KGRR 180017
RFWGRR

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
817 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING CANCELLED...

.COOLING TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING WINDS HAVE REDUCED THE FIRE
DANGER BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-180130-
/O.CAN.KGRR.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-070818T0100Z/
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
817 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS CANCELLED THE
RED FLAG WARNING. 

TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO COOL AND WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW
RED FLAG CRITERIA. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
348 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

LATEST UPDATE...ALL BUT AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(348 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007)
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL PROVIDE COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM
THE ROCKIES WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT NORTH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AND PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (348 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007)
FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY MAINLY DEAL WITH FIRE WX TODAY AND THEN RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

WE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS THAT WILL BE MIXED DOWN TO
THE SFC. I SUSPECT THAT SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL BE MET BY MID AFTERNOON AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 70S.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WENT THROUGH THE CWA YESTERDAY IS NOW IN
NORTHERN INDIANA...JUST WAITING FOR THE NEXT WAVE TO MOVE EAST FROM
THE ROCKIES AND PULL IT NORTH. DECENT DYNAMICS ARE SHAPING UP FOR
SOME RAIN ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NAM AND GFS
HAVE SHOWN SOME CONSISTENCY THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH THIS PCPN. THE
MODELS SHOW STRONG FGEN FORCING SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG
PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE 305K ISENTROPIC SFC. LLJ IS HEALTHY TOO
AND AIMED AT THE REGION. STRONG MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION
COINCIDENT WITH A TIGHT 850-500 LAPSE RATE GRADIENT SUGGESTS THAT
SOME APPRECIABLE RAINS COULD OCCUR. INSTABILITY ISN/T ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE SO I SUSPECT THAT WE/LL SEE MORE SHOWERS THAN STORMS.
THESE INGREDIENTS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY AS PWATS INCREASE
TO OVER 2 INCHES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(348 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007)

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD OF SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH SOLID CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. UPPER PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO FEATURE ZONAL FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AN OSCILLATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG
THE FRONT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. GFS BUFKIT DATA IS STILL
INDICATING OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY PERIOD. OBVIOUSLY TOUGH TO SAY IF WE SEE ANYTHING CLOSE TO
THAT BUT IT LENDS CREDENCE TO THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP THAT WE HAVE IN
THE FORECAST EVERY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(1155 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007)
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL SO WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY FOG/STRATUS FORMATION OVERNIGHT
DESPITE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME GUSTY /UP TO 25 KNOTS/ BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AND
CONTIUNUE THROUGH SUNSET. AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH
IF ANY CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE... (348 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007)
COOLER AIR AND WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL GENERATE 3-5 FOOT
WAVES ON THE LAKE TODAY. IN ADDITION TO BEING A HAZARD FOR SMALL
CRAFT...AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY... (348 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007)
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CENTRAL REGIONS OF THE CWA COULD SEE A HALF INCH OR SO OF RAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... (348 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007)
HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A REF FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 IN MANY LOCATIONS BY MID
AFTERNOON. AFTER COMBINING WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S...RH VALUES
WILL FALL INTO THE 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH WILL HELP
RAISE THE FIRE DANGER. DNR SAYS FUELS ARE DRY TOO.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ENTIRE CWFA.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

SYNOPSIS:   93
SHORT TERM: 93
LONG TERM:  DUKE
AVIATION:   MEADE
MARINE:     93
HYDROLOGY:  93
FIRE WX:    93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
630 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

UPDATED FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON FRIDAY

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-171100-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
630 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS... LOW HUMIDITIES AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON
FRIDAY. THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL WEEKS HAS RESULTED IN VERY DRY GROUND COVER WHICH COULD BURN
READILY IF IGNITED. THE HIGHEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 96...INCLUDING THE MANISTEE NATIONAL FOREST.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY RIGHT INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO OSCILLATE
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ844>849-171100-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-
630 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BE A HAZARD TO SMALLER CRAFT
AND RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY RIGHT INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO OSCILLATE
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS..

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DUKE MEADE