Alert archive / Michigan / Frost Advisories in 2007
Frost Advisory 1, NWS Grand Rapids, MI
NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued this frost advisory at May 12, 2007, 3:10 PM EDT for 13 counties in Michigan. It took effect at May 13, 2007, 12:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 8 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- May 12, 2007, 3:10 PM EDT (19:10 UTC)
- In effect from
- May 13, 2007, 12:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- May 13, 2007, 7:56 AM EDT
- In force
- 8 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Counties Allegan County, MI, Barry County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Kent County, MI, Muskegon County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Van Buren County, MI
The radar
The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 32 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 357 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1183 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 49 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -90 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 30 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this frost advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Rapids, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this frost advisory went out at May 11, 3:10 PM EDT, 24 hours earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 11, 3:10 PM EDT, 24 hours before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 310 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007 .SHORT TERM... A COUPLE OF FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE SHORT TERM. CONVECTION THIS EVENING...FREEZING TEMPS EARLY SUNDAY AM...AND TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...PLUS ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES DOWN TO -1 OR -2 DEG C ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO LANSING LINE. SOME STABLE AIR WAS ARRIVING INTO AMN AREA FROM SAGINAW BAY. THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED NEAR HIGHWAY 131...SO CONVECTION WAS INITIATING JUST EAST OF THIS REGION. SO FAR TOPS HAVE RISEN TO ABOUT 16K FT...WHICH IS ABOUT AS HIGH AS THE WARM LAYER SEEN ON THE 12Z APX SOUNDING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THOUGH AS FREEZING LEVELS WERE RELATIVELY LOW AND SOME DRY AIR ALOFT. WILL KEEP A THE MENTION OF A LOW POP IN FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH ROUGHLY NORTH OF A MUSKEGON TO LANSING LINE FOR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL DROP SOUTH INTO LOWER MI SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS TO THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...MANY LOCATIONS IN THE FREEZE WATCH AREA SHOULD SEE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COULD END UP COLDER. THE LARGE AREA OF 6K TO 15K FT CLOUDS SEEN IN THE UPPER PLAINS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 700 MB SHORTWAVE. THIS FEATURE ARRIVES HERE IN SW LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT AND SAT AM. MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BREAKUP AS IT MOVES IN. HOWEVER CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS RAIN IN PARTS OF THE UPPER PLAINS...SUSPECT WE WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN FORECASTED BY THE MODELS. IF THIS OCCURS...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ON SATURDAY. FINALLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY TRIES TO MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WI. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 1000 TO 500 MB THICKNESS LINES...WE COULD SEE THE ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN WISCONSIN AND NW LOWER MI TRYING TO DROP SOUTH INTO SW LOWER MI. I WILL KEEP IT DRY AT THIS POINT FOR SUN NIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS. .LONG TERM... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY WARM DAY MONDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND 15C AND IN A SSW FLOW REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL TRIGGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY A 40-50 KT LLJ. COOLER AND DRY WX WILL RETURN TO OUR AREA BEHIND THAT COLD FRONT FOR THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND MEX NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FROST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD. .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHITEHALL TO MANISTEE THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ST. JOSEPH TO WHITEHALL THROUGH TONIGHT. FREEZE WATCH NORTH OF A MUSKEGON TO LANSING LINE LATE SAT NIGHT TO EARLY SUN AM. && MJS LAURENS
Hazardous weather outlook, May 11, 5:15 PM EDT, 21 hours 55 minutes before
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</html>The office that day
Everything else NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 3:10 PM EDT | Freeze Warning | GRR | Clare, Gratiot, Isabella, Lake, Mason, Mecosta and 4 more | 17 hr |
Nearby
Frost Advisories in Michigan, 2007Every frost advisory in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.