Winter Storm Watch 2, NWS Green Bay, WI

Brown County, WI, Calumet County, WI, Door County, WI, Florence County, WI, Forest County, WI, Kewaunee County, WI, Langlade County, WI, Lincoln County, WI, Manitowoc County, WI, Marathon County, WI, Marinette County, WI, Menominee County, WI, Oconto County, WI, Oneida County, WI, Outagamie County, WI, Portage County, WI, Shawano County, WI, Vilas County, WI, Waupaca County, WI, Waushara County, WI, Winnebago County, WI, Wood County, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 AM CST TUE FEB 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...ON THE LARGE SCALE...FLOW ACRS MOST OF CANADA WAS RATHER
BLOCKY...AND WAS KEEPING VERY ACTIVE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES ACRS
THE CONUS. THE BLOCKY FLOW ACRS CANADA WL CONT FOR THE REST OF THE WK...
THEN SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WK. THE
ACTIVE WESTERLIES ACRS THE CONUS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE...AND
UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION THIS WEEK BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD.

THE AMPLIFYING FLOW THIS WK WL SUPPORT AN INTENSIFYING CYCLONE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FM THE PLAINS AND INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES RGN. THE
SYSTEM WL GENERATE WIDESPREAD HVY PCPN. MUCH QUIETER WX EXPECTED AFTER
THAT AS THE FLOW TURNS NW THEN FLATTENS AS THE UPR TROF PASSES OFF TO
THE E AND DEAMPLIFICATION BEGINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TDA/TNGT/WED. STILL DEALING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE
WEEKEND SNOWSTORM. PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SHALLOW TDA AND TNGT. HAD A FEW LCNS WITH
BREAKS IN THE MID-CLDS COME IN WITH FZDZ LATE LAST NGT. WL CARRY THAT
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT STLT SUGGESTED MID-CLDS FILLING BACK IN SO THAT
SHOULD MEAN MAINLY LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES DURING THE DAY. MORE PRONOUNCED
MID-LVL DRYING EXPECTED TNGT. BUT...TEMPS AT LOW-LEVELS THEMSELVES
EXPECTED TO COOL A BIT AND WL BE MARGINAL FOR ICE CRYSTALS. SO IT/S NOT
A GIVEN THAT PCPN WL BE FZDZ. WL CARRY A CHC OF FLURRIES OR FZDZ DURING
THE NGT OVER ALL BUT THE SW PART OF THE FCST AREA. WL LIMIT THE CHC TO
THE NE WED MORNING. AMNTS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...BUT IT DOESN/T
TAKE MUCH FZDZ TO MAKE A MESS.

MAIN FOCUS THEN BECOMES SIG PCPN EVENT EXPECTED AS CYCLONE DEVELOPS IN
THE PLAINS AND THEN DEEPENS NEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES RGN. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...LIKELY BECAUSE THE BLOCKY UPR
RIDGE NR HUDSON BAY WL INFLUENCE THE TRACK THE SYSTEM TAKES IN LATER
PERIODS. EXPECT INITIAL BAND OF PCPN WITH LEAD SFC WV/ISENT LIFT TO
START TO AFFECT THE SW PART OF THE AREA BY LATE WED...WITH THE MAIN
SYSTEM ARRIVING LATER...IN THE LONG-TERM PART OF THE FCST. UPPED POPS TO
LIKELY ACRS THE SW LATE WED. STAYED CLOSE TO PREV FCST FOR MAX TEMPS
TDA/WED. RAISED MINS FOR TNGT FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON THE
EXPECTATION THAT THERE WL BE PLENTY OF CLDS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MIN
TEMP GRID WAS BUILT USING 3-HOURLY MAV TEMP FCST FOR 12Z.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY
MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT IS WINTER STORM TO AFFECT AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE POTENT SYSTEM
NOW ENTERING THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...SO SOUNDINGS HAVE
NOT PICKED UP THIS FEATURE YET. THIS HAS LED TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH
EACH MODEL RUN AND ALSO DIFFERENCES NOTED AMONG THE VARIETY OF
MODELS.

TO COMPLICATE MATTERS FURTHER...EACH MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT DEGREE
OF WARMTH BETWEEN 800 AND 900 MB. THE WRF MODEL WAS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +5C AROUND 4000 FT WHILE
THE UKMET/ECMWF BARELY BRING 0 C 850MB LINE INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN.
THE GFS WAS COOLER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. TOOK THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD APPROACH AT THIS TIME BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF MODEL. WITH
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE CANADIAN HIGH AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION...
THINK THE WRF TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO WARM AND THE GFS MODEL MAYBE
TOO COOL.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 00Z
THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WEST OF A LINE MARINETTE TO WAUPACA LINE (DOES NOT INCLUDE
WAUSHARA COUNTY). SNOWFALL TOTALS WEST OF THIS LINE WILL BE IN THE
6 TO 12 INCH RANGE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EAST OF
THIS LINE...THINK SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE QUESTION IS WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
PREVAIL ON THURSDAY EAST OF THE WAUPACA TO MARINETTE LINE (INCLUDING
WAUSHARA COUNTY). THINK THIS AREA WILL REACH SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX
ON THURSDAY. LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 41 COULD GO TO ALL RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LATER MODEL RUNS WILL GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE WHICH WILL DETERMINE IF WATCHES/WARNINGS
WILL BE NEEDED. DID INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.AVIATION...EXPECT IFR TO LOWER-END MVFR CIGS DURING THE PERIOD...
THOUGH CIGS MAY NOT BE VERY UNIFORM.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WATCH WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
WIZ005-010>013-018>021-030-031-035>037-073-074-
&&

SKOWRONSKI/ECKBERG
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

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