Wind Chill Advisory 2, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
245 PM CST TUE FEB 6 2007

.SYNOPSIS...THE HIGH LATITUDE FLOW OVER NWRN NOAM AND THE NERN PAC WL
BECOME INCREASINGLY BLOCKY AS LOW-LATITUDE PAC JET UNDERCUTS THE WRN
NOAM/ERN PAC RIDGE AND WORKS EWD INTO THE WEST COAST. MEANWHILE...
DOWNSTREAM TROF WL SHIFT E A BIT INTO THE NERN U.S. AND CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THE RESULT WL BE A TREND TOWARD A MORE SPLIT-FLOW REGIME ACRS
THE CONUS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS PATTERN AND THE TYPICAL
SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WL BE THE LINGERING WIDESPREAD ACRTIC AIR ACRS MUCH
OF ERN NOAM.

ALTHOUGH THE ABV PATTERN CHGS WL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO MILDER WX ACRS THE
AREA...THE EFFECT WON/T REALLY BE FELT UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE FCST
PERIOD AND BEYOND. EXPECT THE MAIN SFC RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN W OF THE
AREA UNTIL TUE...SO WNWLY FLOW WL PROVIDE A CONTINUOUS FEED OF COLD AIR
INTO THE RGN. EXPECT A COUPLE REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR...AND TEMPS
REMAINING WELL BLO NORMAL.

THE FCST AREA WL REMAIN ENTRENCHED DEEPLY ENOUGH IN THE COLD AIR SO
THAT PCPN CHCS WL BE LOW. FOR THE MOST PART...THE FLOW WL BE TOO WLY FOR
SIG-LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO REACH THE FCST AREA. EVEN WHEN
WINDS TURN MORE NLY WITH THE REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR...THE RAPIDLY
INCRG ICE COVER ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WL GREATLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FORECAST FOCUS ON WIND CHILLS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING.

GRADIENT EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN A BIT OVERNITE AS 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
25 KTS BY 06Z. HOWEVER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THE WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND KEEP SURFACE WINDS BELOW THE 10 MPH WIND
CHILL ADVISORY THRESHOLD. DESPITE THE WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND
CHILLS WILL STILL BE AROUND 30 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS PICK UP WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE AREA BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A RIDGE IN THE PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
MIX ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE
MORNING AS WINDS GO ABOVE 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES
MORE THAN TODAY WITH MIXING AND LESS CLOUDS.

GUIDANCE TEMPS CLOSE TONIGHT BUT SIDED WITH COOLER GFS FOR WED GIVEN THE
BETTER PERFORMANCE TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WED NGT THROUGH TUE. MODELS STILL DIFFERED ON THE TIMING OF
THE REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR. THE GFS SEEMED SOMEWHAT ERRATIC ON
TIMING...AND LOOKED A BIT TOO STG ON SOME OF THE SHRTWVS ROTG SWD ACRS
THE AREA. THE ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY...BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE CONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO WORK MUCH DETAIL INTO THE FCST.
SINCE THE COLD AIR WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SHALLOW THAN LAST WEEKEND...
OVERNIGHT MINS WL PROBABLY DEPEND MORE ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE ARE
CLOUDS AND DECOUPLING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS. STAYED CLOSE TO PREV FCST
AND BLO GUID ON TEMPS.

WENT WITH A DRY FCST. VISIBLE STLT IMAGES SHOWED SIG ICE ON WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE CONTD COLD WX...THAT WL LIKELY EXPAND. EVEN A
FAVORABLE 340 DEG TRAJECTORY MAY NOT GENERATE ENOUGH FETCH TO GET MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES INTO VILAS COUNTY. BY NEXT TUE...THE MED RANGE MODELS
INDICATED THE ERN TROF SHIFTING E AND ZONAL FLOW WORKING EWD ENOUGH TO
RAISE THE POSSIBILITY OF GETTING SOME PCPN INTO THE FCST AREA. BUT THINK
IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE SRN STREAM WL STILL BE S OF THE AREA...AND
DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH MAY LINGER LONGER IN THE CONFLUENT ZONE SETTING UP
ACRS THE AREA. SEEMED LIKE THE BEST WAY TO GO WAS TO HAVE TUE DRY AND
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ADD PCPN IF LATER TRENDS WARRANT.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS/VIS THRU WED. BKN SC CLDS FM 070-120 FT ACRS
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI BCMG FEW-SCT AROUND 00Z.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

KURIMSKI/JS
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
315 PM CST TUE FEB 6 2007

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-071200-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
315 PM CST TUE FEB 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. ANYONE WHO WILL BE OUTDOORS LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY SHOULD DRESS APPROPRIATELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS LOW AS THIS PAST WEEKEND...WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
MAY STILL BE NEEDED AT TIMES. BE SURE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-071200-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-THE ADJOINING
WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
315 PM CST TUE FEB 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREEN BAY...AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD LEAD TO CONDITIONS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

KURIMSKI/SKOWRONSKI
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY