Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
245 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD ONGOING
CONVECTION.

INSTABILITY AGAIN HIGH OVER NORTHEAST WI WITH MUCAPES ONCE AGAIN NEAR
1K. LOW LEVEL AND MID LAPSE RATES FAIRLY UNSTABLE WITH 5H TEMPS
RELATIVELY COLD AT -14 TO -16C  90KT JET PUSHING INTO CENTRAL WI ATTM...
PROVIDING SOME LIFT. AT THE SURFACE WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE SEEN IN
WIND FIELD FROM STE TO IMT. STRONGEST STORMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER FAR
NORTHEAST EASTERN CWA WHERE LAKE BREEZE TO ADD TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SUPPORT FROM JET
ENDING AND LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG. THINKING THAT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SO WILL NOT ADD TO GRIDS.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY WITH DRY DAY EXPECTED WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...FRI NGT THRU NXT THU. FAST ZONAL FLOW INITIALLY OVR THE NRN
TIER OF STATES THIS WEEKEND WL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED FLOW
BY THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK AS AN UPR RDG BUILDS OVR THE WRN U.S. AND AN
UPR TROF DVLPS OVR THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THE TRANSITION TO NW
FLOW WL BRING A COUPLE OF CDFNTS THRU THE RGN AS WELL AS INTERMITTENT
SHRTWVS. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES TO BE THE KEY FOR PCPN CHCS.

LOW LVL FLOW OVR WI WL BEGIN TO BACK W-SW FRI NGT AS A SYSTEM RIDES EAST
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRARIE. A WRMFNT IS FCST TO LIFT NE ACROSS WI AS THE
WNDS BACK...HOWEVER ANY PCPN FROM THIS FNT WL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH CLOSER
TO THE BAROCLINIC ZN. WAA WL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT AND HAVE NUDGED
READINGS UP A DEG OR TWO. NOT MUCH CHG EXPECTED HEADED INTO SAT AS THE
WRMFNT REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND A CDFNT MOVS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.
PERSISTENT SW WNDS WL CONT TO USHER IN WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR INTO NE
WI WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S (EVEN NEAR LK MI). OTHER THAN
RAISING TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE...OTHER TEMPS FROM PREV FCST LOOK GOOD.

MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES RUNNING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WL
QUICKLY BRING THE CDFNT INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS RGN SAT NGT. BULK OF ANY
PCPN PRETTY MUCH TIED ALONG/BEHIND THE FNT WHICH JUST MAKES IT INTO NW
WI BY 12Z SUNDAY. PREFER TO KEEP A MINIMAL POP FOR FAR NRN WI VCNTY OF
THE FNT...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. BROAD SW WNDS BRING A
SURGE OF WARMTH SUNDAY WITH 8H TEMPS APPROACHING +22C AND DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S. THIS WL LEAD TO A HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 100 DEGS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RELIEF ESP ACROSS NRN WI
AS THE CDFNT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH DURING THE DAY. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY WL BE IN PLACE (CAPES PUSHING 3K J/KG/LIS DOWN TO -7) FOR
THE FNT TO USE SO WL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SVR POTENTIAL (AND HVY RAINFALL)
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS TO THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE FNT
AND BETTER DYNAMICS. AS FOR TEMPS...LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED OVR
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI THUS HAVE TWEAKED READINGS DOWN A NOTCH FROM PREV FCST.

CDFNT TO CONT ITS SLOW SWD MOVEMENT SUNDAY NGT AND RESIDE GENERALLY JUST
TO OUR SOUTH ON MON. CANNOT RULE OUT A SFC WAVE OR SHRTWV MOVG
ALONG/NEAR THE FNT ON MON...THEREFORE WL CONT TO RUN A CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS WITH HIGHER POPS OVR SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. COOLER
TEMPS BEHIND THE CDFNT WITH READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL. FNTL BNDRY TO
STALL SOMEWHERE OVR SRN WI OR NRN IL MON NGT AS A NEW SYSTEM DVLPS OVR
THE PLAINS. SOME CONVECTION FROM MON MAY BLEED OVR INTO MON NGT SO HAVE
KEPT A CHC POP GOING FOR NOW. BY TUE...THIS SYSTEM (IN THE FORM OF AN
UPR TROF/SFC LOW PRES/CDFNT) WL APPROACH THE RGN. MDLS ARE ALL OVR THE
PLACE WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE CDFNT RANGING THE ERN GREAT
LKS TO THE UPR MIDWEST. AS THE MEAN FLOW IS UNDER AN AMPLIFICATION
PROCESS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLN WHICH WOULD BRING A CHC OF
PCPN TOWARD NE WI TUE AFTERNOON (AT THE EARLIEST).

CHC OF SHWRS AND TSTMS WL THEN BE CARRIED FOR TUE NGT AND WED AS THE
CDFNT PUSHES THRU THE RGN AND THEN SETTLES SOUTH BY WED EVENING. NW FLOW
ALOFT IN FULL FORCE BY NXT THU WITH A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS ALOFT (8H
TEMPS AROUND +8C). WHILE AN AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHWR A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY...IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE AREAL COVERAGE...IF ANY
DVLP AT ALL. PREFER TO KEEP THU DRY FOR NOW UNTIL THE DEPTH OF THE COOL
AIR CAN BE BETTER ANALYZED AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY CAN BE DETERMINED.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO END BY 01Z...
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED. PATCHY LIGHT FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS WITH VSBY DROPPING INTO MVFR RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TE/KALLAS
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1245 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-061745-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
1245 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM RHINELANDER TO OSHKOSH.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE STORMS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING HAIL AROUND ONE INCH AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-061745-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-THE ADJOINING
WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
1245 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREEN BAY...AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING THAT
WOULD BE A HAZARD TO MARINERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND COULD BE A HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT.

TE
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
234 PM CDT THU JUL 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 PM     HAIL             EGG HARBOR              45.04N 87.28W
07/05/2007  M0.88 INCH       DOOR               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
244 PM CDT THU JUL 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     HAIL             EGG HARBOR              45.04N 87.28W
07/05/2007  E1.00 INCH       DOOR               WI   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
250 PM CDT THU JUL 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     HAIL             LITTLE STURGEON         44.84N 87.57W
07/05/2007  E0.50 INCH       DOOR               WI   PUBLIC

            MORE INTENSE PART OF STORM MOVED SOUTH OF LITTLE
            STURGEON.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
310 PM CDT THU JUL 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             BRUSSELS                44.73N 87.63W
07/05/2007  E0.88 INCH       DOOR               WI   PUBLIC

            ALSO STRONG WINDS AND POWER OUT. REPORT FROM CAMPGROUND
            NEAR BRUSSELS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
323 PM CDT THU JUL 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     HAIL             CASCO                   44.56N 87.61W
07/05/2007  E0.75 INCH       KEWAUNEE           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
329 PM CDT THU JUL 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     HAIL             RIO CREEK               44.58N 87.53W
07/05/2007  E0.75 INCH       KEWAUNEE           WI   PUBLIC

            AT AIRPORT.

&&