Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Green Bay, WI

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 120427
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1126 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007

WIC141-120500-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0124.000000T0000Z-070812T0500Z/
WOOD-
1126 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
FOR WOOD COUNTY...

AT 1122 PM...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PITTSVILLE TO 
BABCOCK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
  DEXTERVILLE AND...PORT EDWARDS AND NEKOOSA.

THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. IF OUTDOORS...MOVE
TO A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 4463 9030 4426 9033 4426 8974 4464 8989

$$

HELMAN

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 120442
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1141 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007

WIC141-120500-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0124.000000T0000Z-070812T0500Z/
WOOD-
1141 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
FOR WOOD COUNTY...

AT 1139 PM...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED TREES DOWN IN THE 
BABCOCK AREA. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 
VESPER TO 6 MILES EAST OF BABCOCK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
  WISCONSIN RAPIDS AND PORT EDWARDS.

DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH WERE REPORTED NEAR BABCOCK WITH THIS 
LINE OF STORMS. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM...SEEK SAFE SHELTER AND 
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 4463 9030 4426 9033 4426 8974 4464 8989

$$

HELMAN

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 120459
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1158 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007

WIC141-120508-
/O.EXP.KGRB.SV.W.0124.000000T0000Z-070812T0500Z/
WOOD-
1158 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WOOD COUNTY EXPIRES AT
MIDNIGHT CDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF 
THE AREA.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOOD 
COUNTY.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WOOD COUNTY 
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. 

LAT...LON 4463 9030 4426 9033 4426 8974 4464 8989

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
728 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007

.UPDATE...REMOVED EVENING SVR WORDING SINCE ONLY CONVECTION
PRODUCING SVR WEATHER NEAR MSP AND WILL NOT REACH C WI UNTIL LATE
EVENING...IF THAT. WILL REINTRO SVR WORDING LATER TONIGHT IF
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT IT.  MUCH OF THE EVENING CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE MSP CONVECTION ISOLATED AND STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN. TONED DOWN
TSRA COVERAGE AS WELL DUE TO ISOLD NATURE ALONG THE FRONT. AREAS
TO THE SOUTH FROM WAUTOMA TO OSHKOSH PICKED UP SOME NICE RAINS
TODAY...THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE HIT AND MISS TNT AS PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

TDH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM...ESPECIALLY THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

RADAR COMPOSITE TIME LAPSE SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
THINGS WERE RATHER QUIET WITH THIS AREA OF STORMS. IF THE STORMS
HOLD TOGETHER...THEY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE PART OF THE CWA SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM MARSHFIELD TO ALGOMA.

19Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWED HIGHEST MU/SB/ML CAPES IN MN/IA WITH LOWER
VALUES IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI. CIN VALUES WERE AT LEAST 50 J/KG
ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FROM EASTERN UPPER MI...ACROSS NORTHERN
WI INTO NORTHERN MN AND IN EASTERN IOWA. STORMS THAT WERE MAKING
THEIR WAY THROUGH WI DURING THE AFTERNOON WERE IN A RELATIVE MIN
AREA OF CIN. SATELLITE WV LOOP SHOWED A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH
SOUTHERN ONTARIO SOUTH INTO WI...WITH THE MAIN VORT ENERGY NORTH
OF WI...OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING ACROSS NORTHWEST
MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE AREA 00Z-06Z
WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/3...THEN HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA 06Z-12Z SINCE DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE LOST
DECREASING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY 12Z SO DID NOT MENTION ANYTHING FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE SO MINOR...OR NO...CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THEM.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...MAIN FCST
CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHCS AND TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WSTRN GREAT LKS RGN SUNDAY NIGHT...
THEN SHIFT EAST OF WISCONSIN BY MONDAY EVG. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK TO THE FA MONDAY NGT...IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH GRB CWA LATE
MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHC
OF PCPN. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA
LATE MONDAY NGT...BUT THE SVR THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...ESP GIVEN THE
TIMING OF THE EVENT. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF A BIT...ESP OVER
C/EC WI. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN GO WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AS A SLOWER MOVMT COULD RESULT IN
PCPN LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. AND THE MAIN
STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE
OUR WX FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT A WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED JUST TO OUR SOUTH (ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES)...OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. ELEVATED
CONVECTION NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY COULD GET CLOSE TO OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER AT TIMES...SO THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR SUBSEQUENT FCSTS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS
EVENING. HAVE MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES DURING STORMS AND MENTIONED SOME STRONGER
GUSTS WITH THE STORMS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1208 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-121115-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
1208 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM MARINETTE TO OSHKOSH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SERIES OF GENERALLY WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE WORK WEEK...HOWEVER THE EXACT TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THESE SYSTEMS IS STILL UNCLEAR.  AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SOMETIME LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-121115-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
THE ADJOINING WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
1208 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREEN BAY...AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SERIES OF GENERALLY WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE WORK WEEK...HOWEVER THE EXACT TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THESE SYSTEMS IS STILL UNCLEAR.  AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SOMETIME LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

TSK/MG