Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
328 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHCS...
AND ASSOCIATED RISK OF SVR WX AND HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT...THEN
CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS ON FRIDAY.

SFC OBS AND MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE NR DLH...WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM THE LOW INTO EC WI...AND A COLD FRONT JUST
ENTERING FAR NW WI. SCT TSTMS...WERE DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR WAS QUITE WEAK IN THE LOWEST
4 KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THERE APPARENTLY WAS ENOUGH LLVL DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IN THE VCNTY OF THE WARM FRONT...AND MODERATE FLOW IN THE MID-
LEVELS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD SVR TSTMS IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (CAPE 2000-2500 J/KG). EVENTUALLY...EXPECT THIS EVENT TO
TRANSITION INTO MORE A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...AS AN MCS ASSOCIATED
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.7 INCHES AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S SUPPORT THE THREAT OF
HVY RAINFALL.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MIXING
THROUGH 850-825 MB SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FA.

EXPECT MARINE FOG TO CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE LKSHR COUNTIES TONIGHT...
AS WINDS MAINTAIN A S-SE DIRECTION UNTIL LATE. WILL MENTION LOCAL
DENSE FOG NEAR THE LKSHR. THE WORST CONDITIONS SHD OCCUR ACROSS N
DOOR COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NITE THRU NEXT THURSDAY. FORECAST FOCUS ON
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD AND PRECIP CHANCES NEXT THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY DURING THE WEEKEND AND
THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AS MEX GUIDANCE JUMPS TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW
90S MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES INDICATE
THESE VALUES ARE ON THE HIGH END OF THE MEMBERS...SO WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE COOLER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THRU THE CWA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NITE AND
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND AMOUNT OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL TAKE A FIRST
STAB AT THE TIMING AS THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
PUTTING CHANCY POPS IN.
&&

.AVIATION...SCT STG TO SVR TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES DURING THE
MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVG PERIOD. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE LATE EVG AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT
A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND ON FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE RGN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

KIECKBUSCH/KURIMSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
414 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-271645-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
414 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT TRANSITIONING TO JUST HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE STATE.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-271645-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
THE ADJOINING WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
414 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREEN BAY...AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE MARINE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL...STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
TRANSITIONING TO JUST HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

AREAS OF MARINE FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...WILL AFFECT THE MARINE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FRIDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE STATE.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT THURSDAY...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KIECKBUSCH/KURIMSKI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
254 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-262130-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON...
TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO...KESHENA...STURGEON BAY...WAUSAU...
WISCONSIN RAPIDS...STEVENS POINT...APPLETON...GREEN BAY...
ALGOMA...WAUTOMA...OSHKOSH...CHILTON...TWO RIVERS...CRIVITZ
254 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...

THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR FAVORITE TELEVISION OR
RADIO STATION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE STORMY WEATHER.

JKL

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