Marine Weather Statement 28, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
234 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CENTERS
ON CONVECTION POTENTIAL AS WELL AS SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AS CDFNT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE STATE. WAA PCPN ON
LLJ PRODUCED CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST WI AND THE UP THIS AM. THIS
BETTER LIFT HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LEAVING MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN A CAPPED AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  VARIOUS MODIFIED SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPES OF 3000 TO
4000 J/KG ALONG WITH SOME DECENT SHEAR FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  MEANWHILE A S/W WORKING INTO WRN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS WORKING ON THE NRN RIM OF THE CAP NEAR MSP...AND
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. DEWPOINTS IN THIS REGION
POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL TIME TSRA ARRIVAL TIME NEAR FROPA TIME WHICH
WOULD INDICATE AROUND 00Z FOR THE GRB AND OSH VCNTYS. WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR NRN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WI.

WILL END PCPN THIS EVENING OVER NRN WI AND LATE TNT OVER EC WI AS
THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH.  WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FCST FOR MONDAY AS
H8 RIDGE BUILDS IN...BUT DO NOTE PERSISTENT HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER
PARTS OF EC WI FOR MONDAY. COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IF DEWPOINTS LINGER...BUT INTIIAL FCST
CONCERN WAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE
THREAT OF SVR TSTMS TUES AFT/EVG...THEN PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPS FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...SO
HAVE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO PCPN TRENDS. HAVE ADDED
A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA FOR C/EC WI MONDAY NGT...AS A WARM FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN WI SHIFTS SLOWLY NORTH. HAVE ALSO SPED UP THE TIMING AND
INCREASED POPS FOR TUES AFT/EVG...AS A STG COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH
THE RGN. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SVR
TSTMS...AND SPC HAS ALREADY PLACED US IN THE DAY 3 SLGT RISK...
WHICH LOOKS GOOD. GIVEN THE FASTER FRONTAL MOVMT...HAVE REMOVED POPS
FROM THE FCST AFTER MIDNIGHT TUES NGT. SOME LGT WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT FAR N WI LATE TUES NGT/WED...BUT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE
FCST DRY ATTM.

ASIDE FROM A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WITH A COUPLE COLD FRONTS ON
THURSDAY AND SUNDAY...THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST IS DRY.

TEMPS WILL START OUT WARM ON TUESDAY...THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
MID-LATE PART OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND
AS SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD TO SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED FROM...AUW TO DLH
BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z...OSH AND AUW BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z...AND MKX
TO AUW AFTER 04Z. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH THE TSRAS/S ALONG WITH
A FEW STORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TDH/KIECKBUSCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
315 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-091100-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
315 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR A COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING.  SINCE THE AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE...SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.  STORMS WILL COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND SUNDAY...
BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-091100-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-THE ADJOINING
WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
315 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREEN BAY...AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF STURGEON BAY MONDAY NIGHT...
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...BUT NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

TH/TSK
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
550 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

WIZ005-010>013-018>021-030-031-035>037-073-074-090000-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-MARATHON-
SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-
INCLUDING EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON...CRIVITZ...TOMAHAWK...
ANTIGO...WAUSAU...WISCONSIN RAPIDS AND STEVENS POINT
550 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 545 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS LINE OF
STORMS. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND MOVE INTO MARATHON...LANGLADE...
NORTHERN OCONTO AND NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTIES BY 700 PM CDT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT ROUGHLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM LA CROSSE TO CLINTONVILLE TO STURGEON BAY.

KALLAS
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
556 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND GST     MERRILL                 45.18N 89.68W
07/08/2007  M48 MPH          LINCOLN            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WITH T-STORM OUTFLOW. SMALL BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
602 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     TSTM WND GST     MERRILL                 45.18N 89.68W
07/08/2007  M51 MPH          LINCOLN            WI   AWOS

&&

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