Marine Weather Statement 13, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
245 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

.SHORT TERM...TODAY/TONIGHT/FRIDAY. PLUME OF HIGHER PW WORKING EWD OVER
THE REGION TODAY WILL INTERACT WITH AFTERNOON DIURNAL HEATING TO
INCREASE PCPN COVERAGE OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY.  MAIN BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF
WI...AND IS DECREASING IN INTENSITY EARLYT THIS AM.  GIVEN OUTCOME OF
THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH RESPECT TO AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR
INSTABILITY...EXPECT SHRA/S WITH ISOLD TSRA TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS FOR
A PART OF THE DAY.  CHALLENGE WITH THIS FCST IS THE DIMINISHING PCPN
TREND IN THE EVENING.  DRIER SURFACE DEWPOINT AIR WORKING INTO WRN WI
TNT AFTER FROPA...WITH MID LEVEL DRYING PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO WORK
OVER THE AREA TNT.  WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING TNT WILL EVENTUALLY END ANY
PCPN BUT WILL LINGER SOME PCPN INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS LONG AS PLUME
OF HIGHER PW LINGERS OVER EASTERN WI THIS EVENING AS PER WV SAT TRENDS.

WITH THE LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE FOG
DEVELOPMENT DEPENDING ON ANY CLEARING TREND.

FOR FRIDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE MORNING
HORUS AND PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON.  RETURN SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST APPROACHES.  AFTERNOON DIURNAL
CONVECTION BACK ON THE TABLE WITH PROGS PROVIDING FAIR INSTABILITY
AGAIN.

GUID AND FCST TEMPS OVERALL OK...LITTLE ADJUSTMENT NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAJOR WEATHER
FEATURES DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ARE A CLOSED UPPER CIRCULATION
AND SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
BECOME AN OPEN WAVE DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHEAST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. LOWERED POPS A LITTLE
BIT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS BRING A DRY SLOT INTO THE STATE. HAVE
NOT DEALT WITH THIS SYSTEM ON PREVIOUS SHIFTS...SO HAVE HEDGED A BIT
UNTIL I HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF HOW WELL THE MODELS ARE HANDLING IT.

.AVIATION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION
WITH SHRA ACTIVITY...WITH ISOLD IFR VSBYS DUE TO TSRA/S.  FOR TNT...IF
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT CLEARING IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

TDH/MG
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1145 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-011645-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
1145 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END LATER THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A
SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-011645-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-THE ADJOINING
WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
1145 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREEN BAY...AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A
SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

ECKBERG
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY