Freeze Warning 5, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
347 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MINOR PCPN CHCS IN CNTRL WI
THIS MORNING...FROST CONCERNS IN THE FOX VALLEY TONIGHT...AND CLOUD
TRENDS AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

WV IMAGERY SHOWED A S/W TROF OVER MN. THIS WAVE WAS PRODUCING SCT
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER EASTERN MN/WSTRN WI EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER NE WI...EXPECT
THIS SYSTEM WILL...AT BEST...ONLY PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES IN CNTRL
WI THIS MORNING. HAVE ALSO RECEIVED A REPORT OF SOME EARLY MORNING
FLURRIES IN NC WI DUE TO LIGHT NNE FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT A
GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS AFTER THE S/W TROF SHIFTS SE THIS
AFTERNOON. MIXING THROUGH 850-825 MB SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...C/NE WI REMAINS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...
SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. IN GENERAL...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR THIS PERIOD. WITH LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED...TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S TONIGHT. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
ARE STILL BEING ISSUED FOR THE FOX VALLEY/LKSHR AREAS (THROUGH
10/15)...SO WILL INCLUDE AREAS OF FROST IN THE FCST FOR THAT
RGN...BUT LET THE DAY CREW ISSUE ANY HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON.
STAYED TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE TONIGHT...BUT THE
MILDER MAV GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS OF MODEL RUNS FOR THIS PERIOD. WEAK SFC RIDGE DEPARTS AS
NEXT UPPER LOW SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION.  UPPER HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO RISE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. SO WILL
SHIFT STARTING THE PCPN LATER SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS INCREASING H8 TEMPS DEVELOPING A BAROCLINIC ZONE.  SYSTEM
IS LACKING MOISTURE INITIALLY BUT PROGS INDICATE BEST MOISTURE
RETURN TOWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SO WILL HAVE HIGHER CHC
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.  COMBINATION OF NRN STREAM S/W DROPPING
INTO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE LOW WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY PROVIDES A GOOD CHC OF
MEASURABLE PCPN TO MOST LOCATIONS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER UPPING POPS FURTHER IF LATER MODEL RUNS BECOME CONSISTENT
WITH THIS TREND. THE MDM RANGE MODELS DO DIVERT WITH POSITION OF
THE UPPER LOW FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL THERE IS A
TREND WITH A GENERAL WEAKENING OF THE LOW DUE TO THE BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE MID SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN COAST STATES.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS. DRIER FEED OF AIR FROM THE SURFACE HIGH INTO THE
FCST AREA WILL TEND TO CONFINE ANY PCPN CHCS TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LINGER PCPN MONDAY NIGHT OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT THIS TIME. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED CONSIDER
EXTENDING PCPN INTO TUESDAY BUT THE LATEST GFS RUN SHIFTS PCPN TO
THE EAST.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST.

WITH THE UPPER LOW A BIT SLOWER...LOWERED TEMPS A TAD OVER NORTHEAST
AREAS FOR SAT NIGHT...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPS
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...
ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF NC WI. ASIDE FROM ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER CNTRL WI AND A FEW FLURRIES IN NC WI THIS MORNING...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER WI.
&&

.MARINE...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON LAKE MICHIGAN
EARLY...AS WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 10-20 KTS AND WAVES HAVE
DECREASED TO 3 FT AT THE MID-LAKE BUOY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

KIECKBUSCH/TDH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
411 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-131415-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
411 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FROST WILL DEVELOP IN THE FOX VALLEY AND INLAND PORTIONS OF KEWAUNEE
AND MANITOWOC COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-131415-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
411 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREEN BAY...AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY RESULT IN CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
PERIOD.

TSK/TDH