Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Goodland, KS

000 
WWUS53 KGLD 092348
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
547 PM MDT SAT JUN 9 2007

COC017-100030-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-070610T0030Z/
CHEYENNE CO-
547 PM MDT SAT JUN 9 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM MDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY...

AT 542 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF AROYA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LAT...LON 3899 10316 3870 10317 3875 10268 3909 10287

$$

MCGUIRE

000 
WWUS53 KGLD 100020
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
620 PM MDT SAT JUN 9 2007

COC017-100030-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-070610T0030Z/
CHEYENNE CO-
620 PM MDT SAT JUN 9 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND IS
NO LONGER SEVERE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN 
POSSIBLE AS THE STORM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST KIT CARSON 
COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3899 10316 3870 10317 3875 10268 3909 10287

$$

MCGUIRE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
248 PM MDT SAT JUN 9 2007

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED TOWARD EASTERN TX AND KS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING
UPPER LOW NEAR THE BAJA RGN OF CA. SFC LEE TROUGHING HAS DEVELOPED
IN EASTERN CO AS ADVERTISED WITH SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTING
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. IN FACT SFC OBS HAVE INDICATED A
STEADY INCREASE IN DEW POINTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATEST WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A S/WV TROUGH RIDING UP THE BACKSIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND IS CURRENTLY PUNCHING UP IN NORTHERN NM AND
SOUTHERN CO WHERE A FEW TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED. AS THE LLVL GRADIENT
REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE AND THE
S/WV TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY TO THE NORTHEAST...MAINTAINED CHANCES
OF TSRA TONIGHT. EXPECTING WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT DUE TO WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIRMASS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RIDE UP ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A
WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA IS PROGGED TO PUSH
INTO NORTHERN KANSAS ON SUN WITH A SFC LEE TROUGH ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOPING IN EASTERN CO. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH
AMPLE LLVL MOISTURE AND UPWARD MOTION WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
CHANCES OF TSRA SUN. HOWEVER THE AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL
LIE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHICH IS WHERE SPC HAS OUTLINED THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA. WITH CONTINUED SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AS 850 HPA
TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S SUN.

THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL FURTHER DEEPEN AND GRADUALLY
WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHEAST MON NIGHT CAUSING THE UPPER RIDGE TO
FURTHER AMPLIFY AS IT SLIDES FURTHER TO THE EAST. SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HEAD INTO THE AREA MON WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING STRONGER DYNAMICS. HOWEVER TUE APPEARS TO HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE WITH PRECIP AS THE SOUTHERN UPPER TROUGH PHASES
WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IN FACT BUMPED UP POPS SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS PROBABLE AS PWS INDICATE PRECIP VALUES OVER
AN INCH ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON INSERTING
ANY HEAVY PRECIP MENTION FOR NOW AS WOULD LIKE TO EVALUATE FURTHER
MODEL RUNS FOR CONSISTENCY IN THIS TREND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL INDICATE A FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
CWA SOMETIME EARLY WED WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES TO THE
EAST. THIS IS DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
WERE INDICATING AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WHICH WOULD SPELL DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. FOR NOW...JUST BROAD
BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WED THROUGH THU TIME FRAME AND
KEPT FRI DRY.

.AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDES UP THE BACK OF THE RIDGE ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR EXCEPT UNDER THUNDERSTORMS WHERE
SOME LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. LATER TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE TO CLEAR SKY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

CLK/FS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1058 AM MDT SAT JUN 9 2007

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-101215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1058 AM MDT SAT JUN 9 2007 /1158 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
A TROUGH AXIS IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE REST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA DURING THE EVENING. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

INCREASING MOISTURE WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE TRI-STATE REGION EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY PRODUCED WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FS