Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Goodland, KS

000 
WWUS53 KGLD 171947
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT WED OCT 17 2007

KSC137-172030-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0255.000000T0000Z-071017T2030Z/
NORTON KS-
247 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN NORTON COUNTY...

AT 242 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NORTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NORTON AROUND 305 PM CDT...

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 100 AND 117.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
GOODLAND.

LAT...LON 4000 10018 4000 9977 3956 9991 3956 10017
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 214DEG 13KT 3980 9997

$$

THEDE

000 
WWUS53 KGLD 172001
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
202 PM MDT WED OCT 17 2007

KSC137-172030-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0255.000000T0000Z-071017T2030Z/
NORTON KS-
302 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN NORTON COUNTY...

AT 300 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
 THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NORTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NORTON AROUND 315 PM CDT...

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 100 AND 117.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
GOODLAND.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4000 10018 4000 9977 3956 9991 3956 10017
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 214DEG 13KT 3981 9995

$$

THEDE

000 
WWUS53 KGLD 172022
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
222 PM MDT WED OCT 17 2007

KSC137-172032-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0255.000000T0000Z-071017T2030Z/
NORTON KS-
322 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN NORTON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 100 AND 117.

HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS THUNDERSTORM. 

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
GOODLAND.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4000 10018 4000 9977 3956 9991 3956 10017
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 214DEG 13KT 3987 9990

$$

THEDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
259 AM MDT WED OCT 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...

A BUSY FEW DAYS LAY AHEAD AS A ROBUST LONGWAVE TROUGH CLOSES/DEEPENS
WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LEAD S/WV
TROUGH IN CONCERT WITH A LLJ HAS ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VIGOROUS ELEVATED TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN KS THROUGH NW OK.
THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
FOR THAT REASON CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER FINNEY AND KEARNEY CNTY
KS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE, BEFORE
MOVING UP INTO NEBRASKA. BY THIS AFTERNOON A SFC LOW, CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN SE CO, WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN AND TRANSLATE INTO SW KS.
THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BISECT THE CWA LEAVING
ERN CO AND A PORTION OF THE WRN NEBRASKA ZONES ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONT WITH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE WARM
SECTOR. THE MAIN ISSUE THEN BECOMES THE QUALITY OF SVR TSRA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATTM FOR THIS AFTERNOON IT APPEARS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA STANDS
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR ORGANIZED SVR TSRA, BUT THE ONGOING
CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD THE WARM SECTOR CLEAR OUT FOR A FEW HOURS
RAPID DESTABILIZATION WOULD FOSTER NUMEROUS STORMS GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY, LOW CINH, AND VERTICAL SHEAR. THE DAY SHIFT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW AND
CLOUD COVER TO ADJUST THE FCST AS NEEDED.

LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SFC LOW TRANSLATES NORTHEAST TOWARD
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA, STRATIFORM PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
FIRST IMPACTING THE CO ZONES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD
EAST-SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, THE SFC WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL INCREASE IN SPEED APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
AROUND 09Z THR...THEN INTO THE HIGH WIND ARENA BY AROUND 16Z THR.
I WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WATCH HIGHLITES GOING AND FOR THE SAKE
OF SIMPLICITY, WILL NOT INTRODUCE A WIND ADVISORY VALID FOR VERY
EARLY THR MORNING, PRIOR TO WHAT SHOULD LATER IN THE MORNING BECOME
A WIND WARNING. I WILL HIT THE WINDS HARD IN THE MORNING HWO. FIRE
WX ISSUES MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE FAR WRN CO ZONES, BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF JUST HOW LOW RHS THAT FAR
WEST WILL PLUDGE GIVEN THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER BEHIND THR FRONT. LASTLY, THE LATEST NWP MAINTAINS A PRECIP
SHIELD THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA.
FOR THAT REASON I HAVE LOW CHANCES POPS AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER
GOING IN THE ERN ZONES.

THE CWA SETTLES DOWN OVERNIGHT THR AND INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS RAPIDLY
RECOVER ON SAT...LOW 80S...AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEP TROUGH. THAT
SYSTEM IS SLATTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY...COOLING HIGHS BY SOME 30 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. NOT TOO
MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FCST GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME. BUT CHANCE POPS FOR SUN AND SUNDAY NIGHT WERE TWEAKED
A FRAZ BASED ON THE LATEST ENSEMBLE SUITE FROM THE GEM AND GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTH
THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
THROUGH 18Z A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET RESIDES OVER THE REGION WHEREBY LLWS
MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT MANY
LOCATIONS. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN FOG
ESPECIALLY FOR THE KMCK TERMINAL AND AREAS SOUTH THROUGH EAST.
ISOLD TSRA MAY ALSO OCCUR THROUGH 15Z MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST
THROUGH SOUTH OF THE KMCK TERMINAL. BY THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH THE KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS.
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR IFR BY 09Z THURSDAY AT
BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ079>081.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COZ090>092.

&&

05/05/LAMMERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
427 AM MDT WED OCT 17 2007

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-181645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
427 AM MDT WED OCT 17 2007 /527 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
LINE FROM MCCOOK TO COLBY TO LEOTI. SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MOVE GENERALLY TO
THE NORTHEAST AROUND 30 MPH. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AFTER 3 PM.