Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
252 PM MDT FRI SEP 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON WINDS SAT ALONG WITH
PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND SAT.

COMPLEX WX PATTERN TAKING SHAPE. DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAC
NW WITH 500 HPA HEIGHT FALLS IN EXCESS OF 100 METERS NOTED NEAR KMFR AND
KSLE. LATEST LAPS DATA AND SPC RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6KM SHEER
VALUES OF AROUND 30 KTS WITH SBCAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG. LAPSE DATA
ALSO SHOWS A CONFLUENCE ZONE ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER WHILE LATEST WV
IMAGERY INDICATES A SUBTLE S/WV TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NRN
NM WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE
PLAINS.. COMPOSITE MOSAIC RADAR HAS SHOWN STRONG TO SVR TSRA
BREAKING OUT ACROSS FAR EASTERN CO AND PRNTS OF NW KS. AS A
RESULT...SPC HAS UPGRADED CWA INTO A SLIGHT RISK. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...BUMPED POPS UP TNGT ACROSS THE AREA. TSRA ACTIVITY WILL WIND
DOWN TONIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES SAT AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN. AS
THIS SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE AREA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND WITH A DEEP MIXED LAYER...THIS WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED
WINDS OF AROUND 30-35 MPH. STRONG MIXING THUS HAVE HOISTED A WIND
ADVISORY STARTING FROM 14 UTC TILL 02 UTC SUN. LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC
TROUGH AND ENOUGH INSTABILTY AND SHEER WILL KEEP MENTION OF TSRA.
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH EARLY SUN. KEPT MENTION OF
PRECIP IN FCST EARLY SUN.

SYSTEM QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE WRN GRTLKS SUN. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. DESPITE THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN
DEPICTING SOME LINGERING PCPN IN THE MORNING...DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A
DRY FCST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY SUN MORNING BUT WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO 700-500 HPA LAPSE RATES
BEING NOT THAT STEEP AND WITH A SHALLOW MIXING AT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WITH STRONG CAA...TEMPS WILL FALL SOME 10-15 DEG SUN
RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

ACTIVE WX PATTERN SETS UP AGAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MON. GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRANSITIONING THIS TROUGH AND ITS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION TUE. WEAK RIDGING OVER
THE AREA MON WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY. WITH SOUTHERLY SFC
WINDS...THERE WILL BE GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION ALTHOUGH FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
RATHER DRY LLVLS. WHILE MODELS INDICATE GOOD UVV...DECIDED TO RETAIN
DRY FCST AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED. TEMPS WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S MON BUT COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S TUE.

FOR THE WED-FRI PERIOD...ENSEMBLE SPREAD BECOMES FAIRLY LARGE TOWARD
THE LATTER PART OF THIS TIME FRAME ALTHOUGH BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING ASHORE OFF THE PAC NW COAST
THU. GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT GIVEN THIS IS
SEVERAL DAYS AWAY KEPT FCST DRY. TEMPS A BIT TRICKY AS WELL BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL 06Z. THESE MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH.
FROM 03Z TO 14Z...WINDS WILL STAY THE SAME SPEED BUT LOSE THEIR
GUSTINESS. AFTER 14Z SATURDAY...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/
     SATURDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/
     SATURDAY FOR NEZ079>081.

CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ090>092.

&&

CLK/BULLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1234 PM MDT FRI SEP 28 2007

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-291200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1234 PM MDT FRI SEP 28 2007 /134 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE
AREA. AT THE SURFACE...AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY
WILL SET UP NEAR THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THESE
FEATURES WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GOVE TO COLBY TO WRAY
COLORADO. THESE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

A LIMITING FACTOR TO THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DRIER
AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY NOT BE VERY MANY
THUNDERSTORMS...THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
PRESENT WILL ALLOW SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 45
MPH ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOULD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

BULLER

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