Severe Thunderstorm Warning 212, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
145 PM MDT SUN AUG 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS AS ANTICIPATED
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. DEEP VERTICAL MIXING HAS RESULTED IN LOWER
DEWPOINTS ALONG/WEST OF SFC TROUGH AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO
STATE LINE. AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF SFC TROUGH AXIS...HOWEVER PROBABILITIES
REMAIN TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ZONE FORECAST.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/CANADIAN BORDER AREA ON MON ALLOWING A SFC TROUGH AXIS
TO SHARPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ML CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER 100S SOUTH
OF SFC TROUGH AXIS WHERE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW/DEEP VERTICAL
MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE. A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD AND WHEN COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG NOSE OF 45KT LLJ WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

TUE-WED...UNCERTAINTY IN FROPA REMAINS WITH THE NAM FASTER WHEN
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/GFS. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BISECT THE AREA
ON TUE PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TUE NIGHT. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST ON WED WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN POST-FRONTAL
UPSLOPE REGIME.

DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND
INDICATE GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AREA IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME
WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONTAL
ZONE WILL BE LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS
SUPPORTING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH
THE GFS ENSEMBLE ONLY PROVIDES LIMITED SUPPORT...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AND LOWER POPS/REMOVE PRECIPITATION ON THU.
COOLER/POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FRI
BEFORE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS MID/UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD WITH
RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEPER MOISTURE
HAS BEEN SHUNTED EASTWARD WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SFC TROUGH. ALTHOUGH
DEEPER MOISTURE MAY ADVECT BACK TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
MUCH LARGER RANGE TO COOL AND WITH WINDS STAYING UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1037 AM MDT SUN AUG 26 2007

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-271215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1037 AM MDT SUN AUG 26 2007 /1137 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE TRI STATE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW. GUSTY WINDS AND AN
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT FORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

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