Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Goodland, KS

000 
WWUS53 KGLD 191814
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1214 PM MDT TUE JUN 19 2007

KSC137-191824-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0110.000000T0000Z-070619T1845Z/
NORTON KS-
114 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTON COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 100 AND 127.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3956 9990 3956 10029 3917 10015 3937 9963

$$

KSC065-179-191845-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0110.000000T0000Z-070619T1845Z/
SHERIDAN KS-GRAHAM KS-
114 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT
FOR GRAHAM AND NORTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES...

AT 112 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 13 MILES NORTH OF STUDLEY...OR ABOUT NEAR NEW ALMELO...MOVING
SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  STUDLEY AND MORLAND AROUND 145 PM CDT...

TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. IF A TORNADO
THREATENS...SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY IN A BASEMENT OR STORM
SHELTER...OR MOVE TO THE MOST INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3956 9990 3956 10029 3917 10015 3937 9963

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
252 AM MDT TUE JUN 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN
COLORADO AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
COLORADO/WYOMING.

POPS ARE THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOR TODAY IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME INDICATION OF AN APPARENT SHORTWAVE ENTERING WESTERN WYOMING
AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR MAX HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE/CAPE AND INSTABILITY. JET DYNAMICS ARE
WEAK. A SURFACE FRONT LIES SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS
COULD MOVE BACK NORTHWEST WITH SOUTHEAST WIND TODAY. ANOTHER
POSSIBLE BOUNDARY WOULD BE THE DRYLINE WHICH IS NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE. STEERING WIND IS ONLY ABOUT
10KTS FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST. THINK BEST POPS SHOULD BE IN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT OR IN THE EASTERNMOST ZONES.
THIS GOES ALONG WITH GUIDANCE POPS ALSO. CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD IN
THE EAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COMES THROUGH THE FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT. SINCE TIMING THESE WAVES ARE DIFFICULT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. MOISTURE IS LACKING
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP THAT PERIOD DRY.

THERE IS ALSO A QUESTION CONCERNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AT LEAST 4
DEGREES. THE NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH FIELD INDICATES GREATER THAN 90
PERCENT RH MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FROM 12Z-15Z. CURRENTLY THE FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT DOES NOT SHOW ANY
DEVELOPMENT TRENDS YET. PLAN TO MONITOR AND MAKE LAST MINUTE
DECISION.

850 TEMPERATURES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR READINGS IN THE 90S.
FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S WED/THU. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S WEST
TO THE MID 60S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 09Z AND LAST THROUGH 16Z DUE TO AREAS OF FOG. THIS
WILL OCCUR ON ALL TWEB ROUTES...263...273...275 AND 314. KANSAS TWEB
ROUTES FROM KGLD MAY EXPERIENCE AREAS OF IFR AND SOME LOCAL LIFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR AFTER 16Z. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY
SEVERE...ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RESUME WITH
PASSING OF THE STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

FS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 AM MDT TUE JUN 19 2007

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-201300-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1030 AM MDT TUE JUN 19 2007 /1130 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
VERY UNSTABLE AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED...ANY THUNDERSTORM WHICH DEVELOPS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA. AT THIS TIME THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

FS/JDK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1131 AM MDT TUE JUN 19 2007

KSZ004-191800-
NORTON-
1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 1226 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEW ALMELO...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

KILLINGSWORTH