Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Goodland, KS

000 
WWUS83 KGLD 201705
RFWGLD

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1105 AM MDT SAT OCT 20 2007

KSZ002-015-016-029-201815-
/O.CAN.KGLD.FW.A.0002.000000T0000Z-071021T0100Z/
RAWLINS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-GOVE-
1205 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2007

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS CANCELLED THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH. 

CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL THIS AFTERNOON FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATCH AREA IN THE ATWOOD...
OBERLIN...HOXIE AND GOVE AREAS. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL CLOSE TO 15 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH.

$$

COZ252>254-KSZ001-013-014-027-028-041-042-210100-
/O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-071021T0100Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-SHERMAN-THOMAS-WALLACE-
LOGAN-GREELEY-WICHITA-
1105 AM MDT SAT OCT 20 2007 /1205 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2007/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING. 

SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE COLORADO-KANSAS
BORDER...WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH RANGE. THIS WILL ALL OCCUR WHEN CONDITIONS ARE AT
THE DRIEST...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR EXTREME FIRE
GROWTH. ALL OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED TODAY.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

000 
WWUS83 KGLD 202133
RFWGLD

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
333 PM MDT SAT OCT 20 2007

COZ252>254-KSZ001-013-014-027-028-041-042-210100-
/O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-071021T0100Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-SHERMAN-THOMAS-WALLACE-
LOGAN-GREELEY-WICHITA-
333 PM MDT SAT OCT 20 2007 /433 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2007/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING. 

SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE FALLEN BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AS LOW AS 6 PERCENT
NEAR THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
IF 15 TO 30 MPH ARE ALSO BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA...CREATING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. 

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES COOL
AND WINDS RELAX. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES RECOVERING TO AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$


JRM

000 
WWUS83 KGLD 210041
RFWGLD

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
641 PM MDT SAT OCT 20 2007


COZ252>254-KSZ001-013-014-027-028-041-042-210145-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-071021T0100Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-SHERMAN-THOMAS-WALLACE-
LOGAN-GREELEY-WICHITA-
641 PM MDT SAT OCT 20 2007 /741 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2007/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING. 

ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE STILL IN THE TEENS...WINDS HAVE
DECREASED BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

FS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 AM MDT SAT OCT 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...PLENTY OF CONCERNS AS WE GO FROM HIGHS IN THE 80S
TODAY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS/LOW RH TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
AT SUNRISE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ITS FIRE AND
ICE (SNOW) OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY NIGHT)...

TODAY-TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THIS WILL ONLY BECOME A MEMORY SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT STARTS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. POST
FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE
AREA AFTER 03Z WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN SUPPORTS
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF YUMA COUNTY
THROUGH 06Z. FROM 06Z-12Z SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOW UP
REGARDING THE TROUGH AXIS POSITION AND CONSEQUENTLY AVAILABLE DEEP
MOISTURE AND QPF. THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET/OLD ECWMF ARE A BIT SLOWER
THEN THE NAM/NGM/RUC. EITHER WAY...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE AND
FRONTOGENESIS WILL FAVOR THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA. LATEST
MODEL 850 TEMPERATURES SHOW TEMPERATURES AT 12Z SEVERAL DEGREES C
ABOVE ZERO SUGGESTING LIQUID PRECIP VS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SNOW AS A RESULT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT ANNOUNCING THE FRONTS ARRIVAL. USED THE GFS WINDS WITH A
PREFERRED SLOWER SOLUTION.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE
GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WITH THE NGM/NAM JUST A BIT FASTER WITH THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. WITH THAT IN MIND...NICE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS
SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN
SHIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. HAVE UPPED THE POPS A BIT HIGHER IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT THE FAR EASTERN
PART OF THE AREA. IF THE GFS VERIFIES COULD BE MORE SNOW THEN A MIX
WITH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM VERY
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST WITH CLEARING EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE WEST AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING EAST. 850 TEMPERATURES
WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT SURFACE TEMPS SUGGEST A
MIX WITH BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH MAX TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING AND A CHILL TO THE AIR.
IF THE GFS VERIFIES THE WIND WILL LIKELY COMPLIMENT THE SNOW IN
REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECWMF/GEM SLOWLY MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH
TO THE EAST WHILE THE NAM IS MOST PROGRESSIVE. WILL KEEP SOME POPS
OVER THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND REMOVE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND A BIT WITH READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 50 DEGREES OR SO.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...

NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT SOME CIRRUS THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL 00Z WHEN AN INCREASE IN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG AND
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS IS EXPECTED IN THE KGLD AND KMCK
AREAS AROUND 03Z-06Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. AFTER
06Z LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER 09Z OR SO WITH
CEILINGS DROPPING INTO THE 1500 FOOT RANGE. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
BUT GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIP WILL STILL BE NORTHWEST OF
THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RH VALUES ARE STILL FORECAST TO FALL AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE
CURRENT WATCH AREA. CONCERNS ARE WHETHER OR NOT WINDS WILL REACH
CRITERIA. 850 MB WINDS FROM THE GFS AND NAM ARE AROUND 25 KTS
WHICH WOULD BE BORDERLINE GUST CRITERIA. IT WILL BE A BORDERLINE
EVENT. 06 NAM WINDS A TAD STRONGER SO WITH THAT AND COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL BUT
RAWLINS...SHERIDAN...GRAHAM AND GOVE COUNTIES WHERE I WILL LEAVE
THE WATCH AS I AM LESS CONFIDENT THAT THE WINDS WILL REACH
CRITERIA.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-014-027-028-041-
     042.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ002-015-016-029.

NE...NONE.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COZ252>254.

&&

DDT/DDT/DDT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
249 PM MDT FRI OCT 19 2007

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-201215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
249 PM MDT FRI OCT 19 2007 /349 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE
GROWTH. ALL OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED ON SATURDAY.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON ON SUNDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
MOST LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF A TRIBUNE TO BENKELMAN LINE. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE
PRECIPITATION...AND MAY CAUSE A FEW AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. DETAILS
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...AND PEOPLE WITH TRAVEL PLANS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

JRM