Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Goodland, KS

000 
WWUS83 KGLD 080157
RFWGLD

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
757 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2007


KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-NEZ079>081-080300-
/O.CAN.KGLD.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-070708T0200Z/
CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-WALLACE-LOGAN-
GOVE-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
757 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2007 /857 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007/

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS CANCELED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

COOLING TEMPERATURES HAVE ALLOWED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO RISE
ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE
KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER

$$

JRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
234 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
THEN CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THAT
PERIOD AS WELL.

LATEST 19Z SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS SHOWED STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM MISSOURI AND
IOWA SOUTHWEST INTO NEW MEXICO. LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN
WYOMING. LATEST IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN IDAHO INTO NEVADA MOVING EASTWARD OVER
STRONG HOT UPPER RIDGE. ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS VISIBLE
OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD.

MODELS INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAIN DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO LIE
IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. BOTH
GFS AND NAM MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH TROUGH FROM IDAHO TO
NEVADA THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS
PROVIDING TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION LATE TOMORROW INTO MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT ANOTHER TRANQUIL MILD NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED. WILL GO
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. AS
SYSTEM APPROACHES REGION ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND AT SOME LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY OUT EAST AROUND 100. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO BY AROUND MIDDAY THEN
SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS. WILL CARRY 20 POPS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR EASTERN COLORADO AND A PORTION OF FAR
WESTERN ROW OF KANSAS ZONES.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS OF 30 PERCENT TO 40 PERCENT
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS
OVER EASTERN THROUGH SOUTHERN ZONES AS DISTURBANCE AND FRONT MOVES
ACROSS AND TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME
POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT MODELS STILL ADVERTISE
POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW AND INSTABILITY TO BE AROUND TO KEEP AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF CONVECTION. WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO
WORK. WILL KEEP MENTION OF 20 POPS TO 30 POPS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY WAS SYSTEM EXISTS REGION. THEN WILL
KEEP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
INCLUDING THE KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

LAMMERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1010 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2007

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-081200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1010 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2007 /1110 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ON SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND
HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE. AT THIS TIME...MICROBURST WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

ADDITIONALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.