Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Goodland, KS

000 
WWUS83 KGLD 071855
RFWGLD

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1155 AM MST WED NOV 7 2007

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO
AND PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...

.A WARM AND VERY DRY AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA TODAY
ALLOWING RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT IN
THE WARNING AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN SPEED
WITH GUSTS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 25 MPH EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HUMIDITY AND WINDS HAS PROMPTED A RED FLAG WARNING TO BE
ISSUED.

NEZ079-080000-
/O.EXA.KGLD.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-071108T0000Z/
DUNDY-
1155 AM MST WED NOV 7 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS BELOW 15 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS OF
25 MPH OR GREATER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS
WILL FALL BELOW 25 MPH AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE ABOVE
15 PERCENT BY 5 PM MST (6 PM CST).

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

COZ252-253-KSZ001-013-080000-
/O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-071108T0000Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE KS-SHERMAN-
1155 AM MST WED NOV 7 2007 /1255 PM CST WED NOV 7 2007/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
THIS AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
THIS AFTERNOON. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS BELOW 15 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS OF
25 MPH OR GREATER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS
WILL FALL BELOW 25 MPH AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE ABOVE
15 PERCENT BY 5 PM MST (6 PM CST).

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

DDT

000 
WWUS83 KGLD 072350
RFWGLD

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
450 PM MST WED NOV 7 2007

COZ252-253-KSZ001-013-NEZ079-080100-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-071108T0000Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE KS-SHERMAN-DUNDY-
450 PM MST WED NOV 7 2007 /550 PM CST WED NOV 7 2007/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE STILL LOW...AND REMAIN IN THE 10 TO
20 PERCENT RANGE. HOWEVER...WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN...THESE
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE. ALSO...THE WIND HAS DECREASED...AND
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE WILL ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
920 AM MST WED NOV 7 2007

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED FIRST PERIOD GRIDS FOR DP/TEMP/WIND.
CONCERNS TODAY ARE ON FIRE WEATHER.

AT 16Z TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE MID 60S ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO (FLAGLER) WHILE ACROSS THE EAST THEY WERE STRUGGLING TO
REACH 40 DEGREES (MCCOOK AT 39). WARM FRONT JUST NOW REACHING THE
EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA.

CONCERNS FOR THE FIRST PERIOD INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER. RH VALUES
ALREADY BELOW 15 PERCENT IN FLAGLER AND THIS WARM/DRY AIRMASS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. 800 MB WINDS SUGGEST BORDERLINE GUSTS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS IN WESTERN KANSAS. THUS...NO FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLITES ANTICIPATED AT PRESENT TIME BUT WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THINGS. THIS IS ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE HWO SO NO
NEED TO UPDATE UNLESS A WARNING(S) IS NEEDED.

12 DAY 850 BIAS FROM THE NAM SUGGESTS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO 80 WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MID 70S. HAVE
BUMPED AFTERNOON TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TOWARD THE GFS SCENARIO.
WITH SUCH A DRY/WARM AIRMASS COULDNT RULE OUT TEMPS PUSHING TOWARD
80 BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE GFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 AM MST WED NOV 7 2007/

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
AND SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST KEEPING POPS NIL.
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONSIDERATION.

850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TODAY
AND THEN COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES THURSDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH. UPPER
TEENS WILL RESUME ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. PLAN TO LEAN
TOWARD COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY BASED COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
YESTERDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S EAST. THURSDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR EXCEPT THE EAST SHOULD WARM TO NEAR 70. MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REACH 70 ON FRIDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
IN THE LOWER 30S TONIGHT/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MID/UPPER 30S FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z. MAY SEE
SOME CIRRUS ACROSS THE KMCK AREA BUT THATS ABOUT IT. HAVE BUMPED
UP THE WINDS AT THE KGLD SITE WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS BY
17Z...DIMINISHING AROUND 23Z AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALREADY
PEAKED.

&&

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

DDT/FS/DDT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
520 AM MST WED NOV 7 2007

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-081445-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
520 AM MST WED NOV 7 2007 /620 AM CST WED NOV 7 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE FIRE DANGER INDEX IS VERY HIGH TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
FALL TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO
NEAR 70. ANY OUTDOOR FIRES WILL IGNITE EASILY AND SPREAD QUICKLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FS