Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
513 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2007

.UPDATE...

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO THE NORTH. CURRENTLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE AREA IN THE
NORTHEAST...WITH STORMS ALREADY PRODUCING AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
IN SOME LOCATIONS IN RAWLINS COUNTY. NAM AND 15Z SREF MEAN
INDICATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT H85 BECOMING ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ALONG A CHEYENNE WELLS TO MCCOOK LINE BY 06Z. WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING THERE IN AREA WITH MUCH HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT NOTED BY NEAR 70 TDS THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE A BIT FARTHER NORTH. FARTHER WEST....HEAVY RAIN FALL
POTENTIAL WILL BE LOWER AS STORM MOTIONS AND FRONTAL TIMING ARE
FASTER. HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF CHEYENNE AND DUNDY COUNTY RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT SO THE SOIL CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE
THERE. SHERMAN COUNTY LIKELY WILL BE THE LEAST LIKELY PLACE FOR
FLOODING AS SOILS ARE DRY AND WILL BE IN AN AREA OF FASTER
STORMS BUT WILL INCLUDE THIS AREA TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH WATCH
TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2007/

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCLUDING POSSIBLE FLOOD THREAT FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS AS WELL
AS TEMPERATURES. LATEST 19Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTH. LATEST IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF UPPER RIDGE OVER ROCKIES WITH CYCLONIC
MOVEMENT OF VORT MAX MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND UPPER RIDGE INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA.

MODELS INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE MAP
FEATURES AS WELL AS UPPER RIDGE POSITION AND UPPER VORT MAX IN
DESERT SOUTHWEST. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH VERY SLOW UPPER FLOW. THIS WILL
EQUATE TO A CONTINUATION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN OF THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PLACING LOTS OF RAINFALL IN A
SMALL AREA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAS HELPED HEAT
THE ATMOSPHERE ADDING TO SOME INSTABILITY.

FOR TONIGHT MODELS MOVE THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES. LATEST SURROUNDING RADARS SHOW A LINE OF
STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AS A RESULT WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR
CONVECTION BASICALLY NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA WITH MENTION
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. WILL THEN CARRY HIGH CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SURFACE FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. LOTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY INTO THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS APPEAR
TO WASH OUT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO RISE BACK INTO THE 90S
WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DID
NOT MAKE BIG CHANGES HERE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO REGION
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF RIDGE THROUGH THE
REGION. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A RESULT. EXTENDED MODELS SEEM TO SHOW A MORE DRY DAY IN
STORE ON WEDNESDAY SO KEPT IT DRY THAT FAR OUT.

&&

..AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. KGLD AND KMCK COULD
EXPERIENCE STORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS COULD
COME OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY TO KGLD AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KSZ001>004-
     013>016-027>029-041-042.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NEZ079>081.

CO...NONE.
&&

JRM/LAMMERS/JOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1037 AM MDT WED AUG 1 2007

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-021200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1037 AM MDT WED AUG 1 2007 /1137 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE KANSAS LINE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. BECAUSE OF THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT...THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN. SOME AREAS OF THE TRI STATE
REGION INCLUDING WALLACE AND GOVE COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KANSAS HAD
HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT...INCREASING THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY CAUSING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.
BECAUSE OF THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND EXTREMELY SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT...THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

JOHNSON/BULLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
723 PM MDT WED AUG 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND GST     RULETON                 39.34N 101.88W
08/01/2007  M65.00 MPH       SHERMAN            KS   PUBLIC

            ALSO NICKEL SIZED HAIL.

0653 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W GOODLAND            39.35N 101.78W
08/01/2007  M59.00 MPH       SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

FOLTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
733 PM MDT WED AUG 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W GOODLAND            39.35N 101.75W
08/01/2007                   SHERMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.15 INCHES OF RAIN IN 20 MINUTES. WATER OVER THE ROAD.

&&

FOLTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
743 PM MDT WED AUG 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     FLASH FLOOD      16 S GOODLAND           39.12N 101.71W
08/01/2007                   WALLACE            KS   PUBLIC

            6 INCHES OF WATER OVER HIGHWAY 27 JUST SOUTH OF THE
            WALLACE/SHERMAN COUNTY LINE.

&&

FOLTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
810 PM MDT WED AUG 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW GOODLAND           39.40N 101.78W
08/01/2007                   SHERMAN            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO POWER POLES DOWN JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF
            ROAD 67 AND ROAD 15.

&&

FOLTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
814 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2007

KSZ041-042-020245-
GREELEY-WICHITA-
914 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR WICHITA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND GREELEY
COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 810 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF SELKIRK...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 27 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 111 AND 124.

MENTZER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
815 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2007

COZ092-020245-
CHEYENNE COUNTY-
815 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 810 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTH OF FIRSTVIEW...AND MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

MENTZER