Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Goodland, KS

000 
WGUS73 KGLD 310527
FFSGLD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1123 PM MDT MON JUL 30 2007

KSC063-310715-
GOVE KS-
1223 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM CDT FOR GOVE
COUNTY...

AT 1221 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED 2 
TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN STRETCHING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MONUMENT 
ROCKS TO AROUND GOVE. ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE 
ACROSS THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS RAIN 
WILL DRAIN INTO THE SMOKEY HILL RIVER AND PLUM CREEK...CAUSING RAPID 
RISES IN SOME LOCATIONS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3903 10016 3904 10065 3870 10076 3869 10017

$$

JRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
857 PM MDT MON JUL 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE HAS DECREASED  A LOT IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
TOUGH TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON BEST AREA OF FORCING FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AS EARLIER CONVECTION WAS LARGELY DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL COVERAGE SHOULD
ALSO DIMINISH. MODELS STILL FCST A WEAK LLJ TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONVERGENCE AND STABILITY FIELDS DONT LINE UP REAL
WELL WITH EACH OTHER.FINED TUNED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT ONGOING AND
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. WITH INCREASED SE FLOW AND AND DEEPER
MOISTURE UPSTREAM...FOG/STRATUS LOOKS GOOD FOR THE NIGHT AND UPPED
CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT EARLY MORNING STRATUS.

.PREV DISCUSSION...

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO OLD MEXICO
AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH. SURFACE FRONT HAS ALSO MOVED SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA. LOCAL AREA
HAS WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUE JUST EAST OF THE CWA...RESULTING FROM WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON 305K SURFACE NEAR 850MB. NAM FORECASTS THIS ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN HALF OF AREA THIS EVENING WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET...SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME HEALTHY
CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS TO BLEND WITH OTHER OFFICES.

PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR SLC WILL CONTINUE THE WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE. Q-VECTORS DO NOT INDICATE ANY SHORTWAVES FOR SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT. OLD FRONT HAS WASHED OUT/DISSIPATED TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION TUESDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL JET IN THE EAST...BUT BY AFTERNOON THINK
ONLY ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LLJ DOES
MAKE A RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST...SO WENT WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS THERE. DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...NO FORCING COULD BE
IDENTIFIED OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING. 850MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 15C IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING
CAP...SO WILL ONLY CARRY THE TYPICAL SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON POPS
FOR ANY ISOLATED CELL THAT CAN BREAK IT.

FINALLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONCE AGAIN...NOT
ENOUGH FLOW FOR A STRONG UPPER PUSH...BUT MODELS INSIST THE FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LIE
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA ON THURSDAY. WILL INCREASE POPS BOTH THOSE
PERIODS AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM... (FRIDAY - MONDAY)
UPPER RIDGE FORECAST BY THE NUMERICAL MODELS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL TRY TO NUDGE THE RIDGE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS A RESULT...LOCAL
AREA WILL GET UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND POSSIBLY OPEN
THE DOOR TO SHORTWAVES COMING OUT OF COLORADO. IN ADDITION...GFS
SHOWS A RATHER PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN
THE FORECAST AREA WHICH COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL STICK CLOSE TO ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES...AS
GFS LOOKS VERY WARM AND PROBABLY SUSPECT GIVEN ITS WARM BIAS MOST OF
THIS SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE TRI STATE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH THE STRONGER STORMS BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH GENERALLY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR WITH
THE PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

JRM/JDK/SFJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1033 AM MDT MON JUL 30 2007

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-311200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1033 AM MDT MON JUL 30 2007 /1133 AM CDT MON JUL 30 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE
REGION. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...HOWEVER DUE
TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

JOHNSON/LOCKHART