Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Goodland, KS

000 
WGUS73 KGLD 290044
FFSGLD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
644 PM MDT SAT JUL 28 2007

KSC181-290300-
SHERMAN KS-
644 PM MDT SAT JUL 28 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN SHERMAN COUNTY...

AT 642 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. THESE 
STORMS WERE LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF EDSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 
MPH. RAINFALL RATES OF OVER FOUR INCHES AN HOUR WERE REPORTED 5 
MILES WEST OF GOODLAND FROM THESE STORMS.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WITH EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 3913 10181 3913 10139 3938 10140 3934 10172

$$

CLK

000 
WGUS73 KGLD 290258
FFSGLD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
858 PM MDT SAT JUL 28 2007

KSC181-290304-
SHERMAN KS-
858 PM MDT SAT JUL 28 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 900 PM MDT (1000 PM CDT) 
FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHERMAN COUNTY...

THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. 
WHILE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS 
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...NO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 3913 10181 3913 10139 3938 10140 3934 10172

$$

CLK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
237 PM MDT SAT JUL 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER
TEXAS AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SUBSIDENCE STILL SQUELCHING CU IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. A SHORTWAVE
IS OBVIOUS IN THE FLOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO/SOUTHERN
WYOMING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. RADAR INDICATING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE POPS AND HYDROLOGY ISSUES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE TO THE SOUTH IS DEPICTED
BY BOTH THE NAM/GFS TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SOUTH.
THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN A NARROW CHANNEL WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR TRAINING. THIS IS MAINLY A CONCERN OVER AREAS WHERE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS AROUND 2 INCHES. STORM MOVEMENT IS A LITTLE FASTER IN
THE WEST ZONES TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...AROUND 5-8KTS. HOWEVER IN
THE EAST ZONES STORM MOVEMENT IS ONLY AROUND 2KTS. FURTHERMORE
MODEL/HPC QPF PUTS A BULLSEYE OVER THE EAST. A FORECAST SOUNDING FOR
HILL CITY INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 2 INCHES. CONSEQUENTLY
WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EAST ZONES
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY AND LEAVE CURRENT FFA FOR YUMA/DUNDY COUNTIES
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SUBSIDING
THERE AROUND 06Z SUNDAY. PLAN TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING AND THEN
DECREASE POPS SOME AFTER 06Z SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST MAINTAINING
LIKELY POPS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MCS WILL STILL BE WINDING DOWN IN THE
EAST SUNDAY MORNING SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR THAT WITH SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARMFRONT POSSIBLE IN THE SAME AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE
WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY.
PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH CLOUDS...EAST WIND AND
PRECIPITATION. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 BY TUESDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WED/THU
AND THEN A TROUGH SETS UP FRI/SAT. LACK OF DYNAMICS/SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SHORTWAVE INDICATED ON
FRIDAY PER THE GFS BUT WILL GO WITH JUST SILENT POPS FOR NOW. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 90S. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. CIG AND VSBY REDUCTIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED TO OCCASIONALLY EFFECT KGLD AND KMCK. CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD TONIGHT...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR KSZ003-004-016.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR NEZ080-081.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NEZ079.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ090.

&&

FS/JDK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT SAT JUL 28 2007

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-291445-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1045 AM MDT SAT JUL 28 2007 /1145 AM CDT SAT JUL 28 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACT ON AN
UNUSUALLY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING...WITH A SECONDARY RISK
FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS. AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 HAVE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND DECREASE
IN COVERAGE ON MONDAY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JDK