Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
257 PM MDT FRI JUL 27 2007

.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS POPS.

THE NAM/GFS MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE UNCERTAINTY IS
INVOLVED FOR SUNDAY AS DYNAMICS BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE. SURFACE
BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE THE BEST RESOLUTION ON POPS.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. THE MOST IMPORTANT BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
FRONT WHICH MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS BUT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SOUTHEAST OF THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. FOR POPS TONIGHT WILL GO WITH LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES AND CHANCE JUST SOUTH OF THAT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF ZONES. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE
AROUND 5 KTS TO THE NORTHEAST SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS RAISES SOME CONCERN ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING. HOWEVER...FFG INDICATES THAT AROUND 3 INCHES WOULD BE
REQUIRED. FURTHERMORE THE SOIL IS PARCHED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE SOIL SHOULD HAVE CAPACITY TO SOAK UP
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF WATER. FOR THIS REASON WILL LEAN AWAY FROM
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

FOR SATURDAY...MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO COME OVER THE
RIDGE. SURFACE WIND FIELDS SHOWS THE BOUNDARY SETTING UP SO THAT THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE
POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE DRAPED IN AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL AFTERNOON WHEN THE NEXT
WEAK SHORTWAVE COMES DOWN. CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE NEAR THIS FRONT
AND PROGRESS SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...LACK OF DYNAMICS AND THAT THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. CONSEQUENTLY WILL KEEP CURRENT NIL POPS.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP TO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BY MONDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

IN THE EXTENDED...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY. THE GFS
INDICATES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SINCE THIS IS DAY 6 WILL GO WITH SILENT
POPS. 850 TEMPS INDICATE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE
LOWER 90S. SOME SLIGHT COOLING IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND WILL LEAN
THIS WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...HUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. IN GENERAL THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH 03Z
AT KGLD AND 06Z AT KMCK. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS CEILINGS BELOW 3000FT ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. BRIEF VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS...TO 25KT...WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

FJS/SFJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1008 AM MDT FRI JUL 27 2007

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-281200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1008 AM MDT FRI JUL 27 2007 /1108 AM CDT FRI JUL 27 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH.
ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

JOHNSON/LOCKHART