Winter Storm Warning 8, NWS Grand Junction, CO

Archuleta County, CO, Delta County, CO, Dolores County, CO, Eagle County, CO, Garfield County, CO, Gunnison County, CO, Hinsdale County, CO, La Plata County, CO, Mesa County, CO, Moffat County, CO, Montezuma County, CO, Montrose County, CO, Ouray County, CO, Pitkin County, CO, Rio Blanco County, CO, Routt County, CO, San Juan County, CO, San Miguel County, CO, Daggett County, UT, Grand County, UT, San Juan County, UT, Uintah County, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
807 PM MST THU NOV 29 2007

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO BRING WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW TO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND...

.UPDATE...FORECASTERS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO RISE WITH THIS STORM
AS VERY MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. BRAND NEW 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE BEING VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER MOST OF OUT MOUNTAINS...WITH
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 HIT THE HARDEST STARTING
MIDDAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SEE LITTLE REASON
TO CONTINUE ON WITH THE WATCH AS WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
WITH THIS STORM. POTENTIAL FOR OVER FOUR FEET OF SNOW NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHWEST SAN JUANS...WHERE 24
HOURS OF MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW...COMBINED WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS
BRING US OUR HEAVIEST SNOWS IN QUITE SOME TIME.  ALSO TAKING NOTE
THAT THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE JUST A TAD COLDER THAN EARLIER
THINKING...AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU REGION FOR
LATE PERIODS...AS NEW NAM KICKING OUT SIX PLUS INCHES FOR THOSE
AREAS.  THIS WILL BE A DYNAMIC STORM AND THINGS WILL BE CHANGING
FAIRLY QUICKLY...SO THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE REGION ARE
URGED TO MONITOR THE FORECASTS CLOSELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT THIS WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA WILL MERGE TOGETHER AND BRING WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO.

THE BAJA LOW WILL EJECT INLAND FRIDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WHILE ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LEFT
EXIT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET COUPLE DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADD A ROBUST OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT
TO THE FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL BE HARDEST HIT BY THIS STORM. ADDITIONALLY...A
SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS OF 2 TO 3 FEET
LOOK REASONABLE BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS AREAS FAVORING SOUTHWEST
FLOW. COLD AIR POOLED IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND SNOW LEVELS ARE AREAS
OF CONCERN WITH THIS RELATIVELY WARM SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS BEING
TRANSPORTED TOWARD THE AREA. AFTER THE BAJA WAVE EJECTS ACROSS THE
AREA THE COLDER UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FLOW VEERING TO THE WEST PROVIDING BETTER
OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHILE COLD ADVECTION
INCREASES.

WINTER STORM WATCHES HOISTED FOR ALL MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ALL WATCHES EXTENDING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED PAGOSA SPRINGS AREA IN A
WINTER STORM WATCH AS WELL AND NEXT COUPLE OF SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
TAKE A HARD LOOK AT SNOW LEVELS AND POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS
HIGHER VALLEYS AS THIS SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE AS WELL AS THE EASTERN
UINTA BASIN. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR RUNOFF CONCERNS ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EXISTS
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS POISED TO TRACK OVER THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY
EVENING ENDING UP JUST EAST OF THE DIVIDE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT ALL SNOW DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
DECREASING STARTING EARLY SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH THE TROUGH
TRACKING OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT INCREASED POPS...QPF AND SNOW
AMOUNTS...BLENDING BETWEEN GFS AND NAM FOR PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
POP AND QPF. NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE MTNS. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SKIRTS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS OF CO. TEMPS WARM AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH THE HIGH MTN VALLEYS COULD HAVE
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS SET UP...THEREFORE KEPT THE COOLER TREND FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST MID WEEK AND ALLOWING
FLOW TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY. THE RIDGE PULLS FARTHER WEST AS THE NEXT
TROUGH DIGS FROM THE PAC NW TO THE INTER MTN WEST IN THE EXTENDED...
TRENDED POPS IN THE UPWARD DIRECTION.

&&

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID CLOUD DECK RESIDING OVER THE AREA IN WARM ADVECTION.
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN LIGHT
SNOW LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOWERING CLOUD DECK FRIDAY WITH AREAS
OF RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBY INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND SNOW...WITH THE BULK OF THE LESS THAN VFR
CONDITIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CO...WINTER STORM WARNING FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT
        FOR ZONES 9/12/17/18/19.
      WINTER STORM WARNING FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT FOR ZONE 23.
      WINTER STORM WATCH FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT FOR ZONES
        3/4/10/13.

.UT...WINTER STORM WARNING FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT
        FOR ZONE 28 ABOVE 8500 FT.
      WINTER STORM WATCH FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT FOR ZONES
        23/25.

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM.....TAL
LONG TERM......AS
AVIATION.......TAL

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