Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Grand Junction, CO

000
WGUS75 KGJT 290230
FFSGJT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
830 PM MDT SAT JUL 28 2007

UTC037-290330-
SAN JUAN UT-
830 PM MDT SAT JUL 28 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM MDT FOR
CENTRAL SAN JUAN COUNTY...

AT 825 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORM NEAR FRY CANYON AND 
NATURAL BRIDGES NATIONAL MONUMENT THAT PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD 
WARNING HAD MOVED SOUTH AND WEAKENED. HOWEVER...RUNOFF FROM THE 
EARLIER HEAVY RAIN REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING IN 
THE AREA. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NATURAL 
BRIDGES NATIONAL MONUMENT...AND HIGHWAY 95 BETWEEN FRY CANYON AND 
NATURAL BRIDGES NATIONAL MONUMENT.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN GRAND
JUNCTION.

LAT...LON 3769 10994 3770 11019 3750 11025 3747 10995

$$

TAL

000
WGUS75 KGJT 290304
FFSGJT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
903 PM MDT SAT JUL 28 2007

UTC037-290313-
SAN JUAN UT-
903 PM MDT SAT JUL 28 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL SAN JUAN
COUNTY...

HEAVY RAINFALL AND RUNOFF WHICH PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS 
SUBSIDED. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3769 10994 3770 11019 3750 11025 3747 10995

$$

TAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
215 PM MDT SAT JUL 28 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
CONVECTION NOT QUITE AS ROBUST THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO
RECENT AFTERNOONS.  EVEN SO...A CLUSTER OF CELLS HAVE FORMED OVER
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST.  WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...A FEW OF THESE STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY SHOWERS BUT STORMS HAVE SUFFICIENT MOVEMENT THAT
HEAVY RAIN AT ANY SPOT HAS NOT OCCURRED.  FARTHER NORTH...WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THE NRN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME SLOWLY SINKING
SOUTH.  DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS PENETRATED NORTHEAST UTAH AND THE
EXTREME CORNER OF NORTHWEST COLORADO...AND THIS HAS REDUCED THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER UTAH HAS CHANGED THE WINDS ALOFT TO A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT...AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
SOUTHWARD.  THIS DRY AIR WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE SRN BORDER OF SE
UTAH OR SW COLORADO...BUT SHOULD REACH THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE SAN
JUAN AND ABAJO (BLUE) MOUNTAINS.  THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STAY
RELATIVELY MOIST SO ISOLATED STORMS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS...THEN DRIFT SOUTH.  DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR SCATTERED STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVY RAINERS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THE DRY ADVECTION ALOFT WILL
HAVE ENDED.  MODEL DATA ALREADY HINTING AT THE NEXT SURGE OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE...INITIALLY THIS WILL AFFECT THE WRN HALF OF
UTAH BEFORE CIRCULATING INTO NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO.  ANOTHER DAY
WITH A FEW HEAVY RAINERS OVER THE FAR SOUTH...LESS NUMEROUS AND
NOT AS WET STORMS OVER THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE WITH REASONABLE CONSISTENCY FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER UTAH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT DOWN TREND IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. MOST STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
DIVIDE AND THE SAN JUANS WITH JUST A FEW DRIFTING INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

LATER IN THE WEEK THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OPENING THE DOOR
FOR THE NEXT SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINE WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE FOR MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER. WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD...
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.  AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KGJT TO KEGE...WITH
LESS STORMS NORTH OF THIS LINE. DEEP CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
SHOWERS THAT WILL OBSCURE MOUNTAINS AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES.
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH ALL STORMS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER 02Z AND DIMINISH BY 06Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CO...NONE.
.UT...NONE.

SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...PF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
545 AM MDT SAT JUL 28 2007

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-291145-
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GRAND VALLEY-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-
545 AM MDT SAT JUL 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE A FEW ARROYOS AND SMALL STREAMS TO QUICKLY
FILL OR RUN HIGH WITH FAST FLOWING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH
AND NORTHWEST COLORADO...THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES BUT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH A FEW STORMS DRIFTING OVER THE VALLEYS.  SOUTHEAST UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE INCREASES DURING THIS PERIOD
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.  THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL INCREASE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OF HEAVY RAIN...
HAIL...AND ANY WEATHER RELATED DAMAGE WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.