Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Grand Junction, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
237 PM MDT SUN AUG 5 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE GREATEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE GJT 12Z
SOUNDING WAS A VERY MOIST 1.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN ARE AIDING IN
STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN
OVER NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO WHERE WEAK DYNAMICS AND
BEST SURFACE HEATING EARLY ARE AT WORK. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE MAIN
THREAT WITH STORMS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING A POSSIBILITY.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO MAY BE SUPPRESSED ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS INDICATING A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT TRAVERSING THE AREA.

MORE OF THE SAME FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE UPPER JET AXIS REMAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES POTENTIALLY PROVIDING
WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING ALONG ITS SOUTH EDGE. HINTS OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY BRUSHING THE NORTH AS WELL WHILE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TROUGHS
WILL LIKELY ROTATE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...ALL CONTRIBUTING
TO MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE GOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH GENERALLY FOLLOWED GUIDANCE AND
IS AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. LINDQUIST

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST BUT STALLING
BEFORE MAKING MUCH PROGRESS. SLIGHT WARMING AND DRYING TREND BY THE
END OF THE WEEK IS HANDLE WELL SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT
PACKAGE. DJC/21

&&

.AVIATION...
MONSOON INFLUENCE TO CONTINUE TO BRING CONVECTIVE WEATHER HAZARDS TO
THE AVIATION COMMUNITY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE BUT SOME AREAS
WILL HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY FROM HEAVY
SHOWERS.  SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS WILL OBSCURE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CO...NONE.
.UT...NONE.

SHORT TERM...TAL
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...TAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
600 AM MDT SUN AUG 5 2007

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-061200-
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GRAND VALLEY-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-
600 AM MDT SUN AUG 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE
WESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS...TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  A FEW OF
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT.  A FEW STORMS WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL CAUSE ARROYOS AND SMALL STREAMS TO QUICKLY
FILL OR RUN HIGH WITH FAST FLOWING WATER.  THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.  URBAN OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY DRIER
EACH DAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DECREASING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...REPORTS RELAYED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OF HEAVY
RAIN...HAIL...AND ANY WEATHER RELATED DAMAGE WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.