Wind Chill Advisory 3, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
436 PM CST THU FEB 1 2007

.UPDATE...WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST TO PUT OUT A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR MAINLY THE NORTH AND WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. IT APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL EVENT...BUT THINK ITS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ADVISORY...AND IT WILL MATCH UP BETTER WITH
SURROUDING OFFICES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST THU FEB 1 2007/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z/0600 CST SUNDAY. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES.

VARIOUS SATELLITE IMAGERIES ARE SHOWING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WEST CENTRAL U.S. CLOSER TO HOME...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE
INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT JUST NOW BEGINNING TO ENTER  THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING
THIS REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW WAS BEING
REPORTED AT ORD NEBRASKA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT IS NOT
ABUNDANT...HOWEVER...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND FRONT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE OF FLURRIES TO MOST
LOCATIONS. MORE IMPORTANTLY IS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPS LOOK TO DROP FROM NEGATIVE 9
OR SO TO NEGATIVE 20 BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED THAT
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH THE COLD AIR...WOULD
CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS. IT APPEARS WE
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND THE BEST WAY TO CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IS THROUGH THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS WE
ARE CURRENTLY DOING.

LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE THE TAIL
END OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS DISINTEGRATES OVER THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY. WILL SEE SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BECAUSE OF THIS. THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST STATES AS A NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING ADDITIONAL COLD AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE WITH NORTHERN
FORECAST ZONES REACHING NEAR 12 DEGREES AND SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR 16.
LATE IN THE DAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PASS BY JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA AND
PROGRESSES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST ZONES SATURDAY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL AND RANGE FROM NEAR 10
OVER THE FAR NORTH TO AROUND 20 FAR SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD SOMEWHAT WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE UPPER LEVELS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BROAD UPPER LOW. PARTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY CONDITIONS BEGIN TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THAT TIME.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.  THE NET RESULT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
IS A CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF FLURRIES.

A VORT MAX TRAVELS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BUT APPEARS WEAK AND HAVE KEPT FLURRIES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW.  LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW
THAT COULD RESULT IN A FEW FLURRIES.

THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY ALL OF NEXT WEEK...HELPING TO
BRING DOWN CONTINUED WAVES OF COLDER AIR THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FLURRIES MAY ALSO
NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FORECAST AS WEAK
SHORT WAVES PASS THROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN.  THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY OF THESE WEAK
WAVES AND HAVE LEFT FLURRIES OUT OF THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PERIODIC FLURRIES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>063-072>075-082>084.

KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR KSZ005.

&&

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