Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
630 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE KGRI AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
TERMINAL AREA AFTER 8 PM. LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. BY MORNING THE CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT ABOVE 3000 FT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007/

SHORT TERM...AN ACTIVE WEATHER NIGHT SHAPING UP FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS.  THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING.   DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY SEEN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.  GIVEN
STRONG UPPER FORCING ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY TO INITIALLY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. WITH ML
CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND 30 TO 40
KNOT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE LOOKS VERY LIKELY.  SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS LOOK VERY POSSIBLE ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.  THE
BIGGER PROBLEM AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES INVOLVES FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL AS PW VALUES AROUND 150 PERCENT NORMAL ALONG WITH A
TRAINING CONVECTION MAKES IT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR FLASH
FLOODING.  BASED ON THIS...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

AS THE AREA PROGRESSES INTO TOMORROW...THE FRONT IS SHOWN TO STALL
JUST SOUTHEAST OF A HEBRON TO BELOIT LINE AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT THIS WILL BRING A
CLOUDY AND COOLER DAY TO THE FORECAST AREA AS DECENT COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT DROPS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
FOR HIGHS.  AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM BEHIND THE FRONT
LOOKS POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN
TO PICK UP AFTER DARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A 40 TO 55 KT LLJ IS SHOWN
TO DEVELOP INTO THE FRONT.  ANTICIPATE CONVECTION ROLLING OUT OF THE
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING WILL START TO FEED OFF OF THIS LLJ
WITH A LARGE MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION.  SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
BE DECENT WITH THIS MCS ALTHOUGH MAINLY LIMITED TO HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.  HOWEVER...FLOODING WILL BE A PROBLEM AS PW VALUES WILL
REMAIN HIGH WHILE QPF VALUES LOOK TO BE OVER 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR
SEVERAL AREAS SOUTH OF A YORK TO PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

LONG TERM...12Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
WILL BE INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AN UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE SOME REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING BUT THEY
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY NOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL HAVE TURNED TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASED...BRINGING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. A WEAK UPPER WAVE
SLIDES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND EXPECT THAT THERE MAY BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MODELS HAVE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE FRONTS THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THE
NEXT FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL NOT BE RAINING
ALL THE TIME...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES
AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES INDICATES THAT THERE WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1005 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 PM     HAIL             PROSSER                 40.69N 98.58W
05/22/2007  E0.75 INCH       ADAMS              NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

1002 PM     HAIL             2 W PROSSER             40.69N 98.62W
05/22/2007  E1.00 INCH       ADAMS              NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

KISNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1005 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

NEZ061-230330-
BUFFALO-
1005 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR BUFFALO COUNTY...

AT 959 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF KEARNEY...OR NEAR KEARNEY...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GIBBON BY 1015 PM CDT
  PLEASANTON BY 1020 PM CDT
  SHELTON BY 1025 PM CDT
  POOLE BY 1030 PM CDT

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

HEINLEIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1011 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

NEZ040-230345-
GREELEY-
1011 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR GREELEY COUNTY...

AT 1009 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GREELEY...OR 24 MILES EAST OF ORD...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SPALDING BY 1030 PM CDT

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1022 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     HAIL             1 S REPUBLICAN CITY     40.09N 99.22W
05/22/2007  E0.75 INCH       HARLAN             NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ALSO 50 MPH WINDS ESTIMATED NEAR HARLAN COUNTY DAM

&&

PFANNKUCH

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