Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Hastings, NE

May 5, 2007Osborne County, Kansas

NWS Hastings, NE issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 5, 2007, 10:02 PM CDT for Osborne County, Kansas. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: May 5, 2007, 10:02 PM CDT (03:02 UTC)
Expired: May 5, 2007, 10:45 PM CDT
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Hastings, NE
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Osborne County, KS

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 5, 9:08 PM CDT	Tornado Watch PDS	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 3.0 hours before the alert went out and 201 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 981 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -2 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1826 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 65 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -2 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 198 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 5, 2:26 PM CDT, 7 hours 36 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 5, 2:26 PM CDT, 7 hours 36 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
226 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
IS ON-GOING SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA INDICATED THE CENTER OF AN
UPPER CLOSED LOW IN THE VICINITY OF EAST CENTRAL UTAH WITH A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE...A DRYLINE STRETCHED NORTH-SOUTH OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS WITH THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINED
OVER THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.0 INCH.
CAPE VALUES WERE RANGING FROM 1.5-3.0K J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
WERE NEAR NEGATIVE 5 AND HELICITY VALUES APPROACHED 200-300 M2/S2.
AFTER CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ENDED DURING THE MID-MORNING
HOURS TODAY...INITIATION OF NEW CONVECTION BEGAN TO OCCUR IN AREAS
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT ABOUT 4 TO 6 HOURS AHEAD OF
YESTERDAYS INITIATION. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WEAK WARM FRONT...BUT BETTER AND MORE RECENT INITIATION HAS BEEN
OCCURING ALONG THE DRYLINE TO OUR WEST.

FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE DRYLINE
AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW ALOFT. MORNING MODELS INDICATED
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS EXCEPT
MAYBE TO RETROGRADE WEST SOMEWHAT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS
WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN
THREATS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.
THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY MAY EXCEED 7 PM TONIGHT IF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TAKES LONGER TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THEN ON INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES ARE SHOWN TO
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE THE 1.0 INCH MARK...CAPE VALUES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY LOWER AS WILL SHEAR VALUES. THE TORNADIC THREAT DOES NOT
LOOK AS HIGH AS TODAY/TONIGHT THOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH LINES OF STORMS MORE LIKELY. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PROVIDE MORE OF A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...BEGINNING 12Z MONDAY.

SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY...THUS
PUSHING THE HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD BRING
AN END TO OUR DEEP CONVECTION AND CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE PROMOTING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR FOR PRECIP CONTINUE IN THE
FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES ON TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...AM CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS
INDICATES ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BRING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST
DRY...WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO FINISH OUT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

19/SEB

Hazardous weather outlook, May 5, 9:45 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

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In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 5, 8:20 PM CDT, 1 hour 42 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
820 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

KSZ019-060215-
MITCHELL-
820 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY...

AT 820 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUCAS...OR 16 MILES WEST OF
LINCOLN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HUNTER BY 850 PM CDT
  VICTOR BY 855 PM CDT
  TIPTON BY 900 PM CDT

LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.  THIS
STORM WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY TO THE POTENTIAL OF A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF THE STORMS MOVE INTO
THE AREA. BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS.

AWJ

Special weather statement, May 5, 8:55 PM CDT, 1 hour 7 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
855 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

NEZ047-060245-
HOWARD-
855 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR HOWARD COUNTY...

AT 853 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ST. PAUL...OR 18 MILES NORTH OF GRAND
ISLAND...AND MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ST. PAUL BY 900 PM CDT
  ELBA BY 905 PM CDT
  CUSHING BY 910 PM CDT

DIME SIZED HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

AWJ

Local storm report, May 5, 9:16 PM CDT, 46 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
916 PM CDT SAT MAY 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             ASHERVILLE              39.41N 97.98W
05/05/2007  E1.00 INCH       MITCHELL           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CARMEL

Local storm report, May 5, 9:49 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 5, 9:50 PM CDT, 12 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 5, 9:53 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Hastings, NE issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 5, 9:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Greeley, Howard	50 min
May 5, 9:22 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	GID	Greeley	38 min
May 5, 10:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Thayer	59 min
May 5, 10:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Fillmore	51 min
May 6, 5:13 AM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	GID	Adams, Buffalo, Clay, Dawson, Fillmore, Franklin and 18 more	19 hr
May 5, 8:36 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	GID	Mitchell	54 min
May 5, 9:04 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	GID	Mitchell	41 min
May 5, 9:32 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	GID	Mitchell	26 min
May 5, 9:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Jewell	38 min
May 5, 10:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Smith	33 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.