Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
254 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COMPLEX WEATHER
SCENARIO UNFOLDING OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN
BEING THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SFC BOUNDARY WAS PUSHED SOUTH THIS MORNING BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED ALONG INTERSTATE 80 AND CONTINUED TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION WAS JUST
BEGINNING TO FIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. ALSO OF NOTE IS A SHORT WAVE TRACKING EAST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE TO MONITOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MOST STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR ROTATING STORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY BUT EVEN HERE EXPECT ONLY
A VERY SLIGHT TORNADO THREAT WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH
THE UPPER SHORT WAVE COMING OUT INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM THREAT AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL PUSH SFC BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH TOMORROW
AND EXPECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  IN
ADDITION...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
BE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH THERE WILL BE DECREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPER WAVE
WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND ANOTHER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SO HAVE SOME
KIND OF LOWER POPS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF A CHALLENGE. THERE IS A 15
DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV FOR KGRI FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT THAT WITH CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN AROUND THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOLER SIDE...BUT REALLY DO NOT EXPECT THAT THEY WILL BE
66 AS THE MET INDICATES. WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE MAV.
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP AGAIN BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE IN THE 80S
TO LOWER 90S UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN AGAIN
AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.AVIATION...18Z TAF. COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST TODAY WITH SFC
BOUNDARY HOVERING RIGHT AROUND KGRI. FRONT PRESSED JUST SOUTH OF
KGRI BETWEEN 17Z AND 18Z BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST. FRONT SHOULD STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF KGRI THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SWEEPING MORE SUBSTANTIALLY SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT. KGRI STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THAN IN THE PAST TWO DAYS DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS SFC
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WESELY
.LONG TERM...JCB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1156 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
231200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
1156 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND 70 MPH WINDS THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF TWO
INCHES MAY CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

WESELY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
259 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

NEZ073-222030-
PHELPS-
259 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR PHELPS COUNTY...

AT 252 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LOOMIS...OR 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOLDREGE...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

KISNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
327 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

NEZ040-222130-
GREELEY-
327 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR GREELEY COUNTY...

AT 321 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF NORTH LOUP...OR 9 MILES EAST OF
ORD...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GREELEY BY 340 PM CDT
  SPALDING BY 400 PM CDT

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.  THESE STORMS WILL ALSO DROP HEAVY RAINS. THOSE IN LOW AND
FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO TAKE
ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

KISNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
335 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

NEZ061-222100-
BUFFALO-
335 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR BUFFALO COUNTY...

AT 334 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PLEASANTON...OR 17 MILES NORTH OF KEARNEY...
AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  POOLE BY 345 PM CDT
  RAVENNA BY 350 PM CDT

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

HEINLEIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
345 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

NEZ046-222130-
SHERMAN-
345 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR SHERMAN COUNTY...

AT 338 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LOUP CITY...OR 21 MILES SOUTH OF ORD...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ASHTON...

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS. THOSE
IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND BE
READY TO TAKE ACTION IF WATER LEVELS RISE.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

KISNER