Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
954 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH STRONGER
WIND SPEEDS OCCURRING WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT ALONG WITH VERY STRONG WIND SPEEDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. ALSO DECREASED CLOUDINESS IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER
ESSENTIALLY THE KANSAS COUNTIES OF THE CWA. INCLUDED KANSAS
COUNTIES FOR JUST THIS EVENING FOR THE WIND ADVISORY AS THE LOW
SLIPS TO THE EAST AND VERY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT EXPECTED ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. ALSO INCREASED DEWPOINTS
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ON THE KANSAS SIDE AND DECREASE
TEMPERATURES SOME NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES LIKELY TODAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS
REGION OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH A DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT HAD LED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ONGOING MCS OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAD GREATLY
DIMINISHED THE TORNADIC THREAT IN THAT AREA WHILE SMALL HAIL AND
FLOODING RAINS CONTINUED TO BE PROBLEMATIC NORTH OF THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER.

FOR TODAY...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS IN THE
NEAR-TERM AND IS MODERATE TO HIGH AS MANY ELEMENTS WILL COME
TOGETHER. MONDAY EVENINGS MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT AS THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A
DRYLINE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD TODAY INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS AS A WARM FRONT REMAINS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND
THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A 90 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SUN REACHING THE GROUND EARLY IN
THE DAY OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL LEAD TO RAPIDLY STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AS SURFACE BASED CAPES APPROACH 1600 J/KG WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ANY MID LEVEL CAPPING. STRONG MID TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE IN PLACE WITH SIG TOR VALUES INDICATING A MODERATE TO HIGH
CHANCE OF TORNADIC ACTIVITY OVER OUR KANSAS COUNTIES FROM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING NORTH...HYDRO ISSUES WILL BE A CONCERN
OVER THE NEBRASKA COUNTIES AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 1 INCH AND A RELENTLESS EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DRIVES
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION DURING THE SAME TIME THAT THE TORNADO
THREAT LINGERS TO THE SOUTH. FLASH FLOOD WATCH ORIGINALLY ISSUED
DURING THE DAY SHIFT ON MONDAY...AND SCHEDULED TO RUN FROM THIS
MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...STILL LOOKS VERY GOOD.

TONIGHT...THE CLOSED LOW WILL TRANSLATE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A
NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRYLINE
DISSIPATES IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO
EASTERN KANSAS TAKING AVAILABLE CAPE/INSTABILITY AND THE TORNADIC
THREAT WITH IT. HYDRO ISSUES WILL LINGER OVER THE NEBRASKA COUNTIES
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 0.80 INCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST
KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH THE FLOW WEAKENING BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE WINDING DOWN DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND WILL HAVE MOSTLY ENDED BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE
DEVELOPING RIDGE FINALLY DOMINATES THE LOCAL WEATHER.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH 4 AM TODAY THROUGH 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...NONE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

HEINLEIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1206 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-251200-
VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-
HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-
FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
1206 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A RISK OF WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALL DAY
TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT EXPECTED TO HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

EXPECT SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO BE NEAR 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

EXPECT SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO BE NEAR 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

KSZ005>007-017>019-251200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-
1206 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT MAY AT TIMES PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD ALSO LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

EXPECT SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS TO BE NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

EXPECT SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS TO BE NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

HEINLEIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1150 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

NEZ084-241730-
FRANKLIN-
1150 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY...

AT 1147 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF
BLOOMINGTON TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FRANKLIN TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
RIVERTON...AND MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BLOOMINGTON BY 1155 AM CDT
  CAMPBELL BY 1215 PM CDT
  HILDRETH BY 1220 PM CDT

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

AWJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1211 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HAIL             6 NNW RIVERTON          40.17N 98.80W
04/24/2007  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           NE   PUBLIC

&&

KB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1217 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

NEZ074-075-241800-
ADAMS-KEARNEY-
1217 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR WESTERN ADAMS AND EASTERN KEARNEY COUNTIES...

AT 1215 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CAMPBELL...OR 28 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HASTINGS...AND MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NORMAN BY 1230 PM CDT
  HEARTWELL BY 1235 PM CDT
  KENESAW BY 1240 PM CDT

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

AWJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1259 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

KSZ006-NEZ084-085-241845-
FRANKLIN-SMITH-WEBSTER-
1259 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN FRANKLIN...NORTHERN SMITH AND WESTERN
WEBSTER COUNTIES...

AT 1254 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF SMITH CENTER...OR 29 MILES
EAST OF PHILLIPSBURG...AND MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RIVERTON BY 110 PM CDT
  INAVALE BY 115 PM CDT
  COWLES BY 125 PM CDT
  BLADEN BY 130 PM CDT
  BLUE HILL BY 135 PM CDT

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

AWJ

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