Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
352 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT FROM WI THROUGH
SOUTHERN SD WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR KYKN TO
KBBW INTO WESTERN KS. CU FIELD HAS STARTED TO BUILD IN BETWEEN THE
COLD FRONT AND TROUGH OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. LAPS DATA SHOWS
GOOD INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH CAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 3500 J/KG
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE CAP HAS
LARGELY ERODED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA AND ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES PER 20Z LAPS DATA...BUT STILL REMAINS RATHER
STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN WY
INTO WESTERN NE WHICH WILL HELP GET CONVECTION GOING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO GET GOING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO ERODE AND
FORCING ALOFT FROM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH LOW-LEVEL
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THESE
STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY EVENING...WITH STORM CHANCES THEN GENERALLY SPREADING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS QUITE WEAK BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SOME PULSE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
ADEQUATE MOISTURE IS ALSO IN PLACE COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM
MOTION AROUND 10 KTS TO GENERATE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN UNDER THE
STRONGER STORMS. THE SURFACE FRONT AND MID-LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY WORK
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT...KEEPING NOCTURNAL PRECIP
CHANCES GOING.

THE FRONT LINGERS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA ON MONDAY WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL WAVE IS SLOW TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THUS HAVE KEPT
PRECIP CHANCES GOING WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE
FRONT WASHES OUT BY LATE IN THE DAY WHILE FORCING ALOFT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD FORM IN UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE
WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND A FEW MAY SLIP INTO THE WESTERN
CWA BUT MOST OF THE ACTION LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST. THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON MONDAY AND WILL TEAM
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.  FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM
CONTINUES TO BE COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY SHOULD START OUT DRY AS MONDAYS SYSTEM PUSHES
SOUTH OF THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST ENTERING WESTERN BC
CANADA...LOOKS TO RIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN JET AND BE SITUATED OVER
MANITOBA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN
TO OUR N AND NE AND MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE SLOWED DUE TO THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. STILL WITH BOUNDARY IN AREA...WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY LINGER INTO WED
MORNING.

AFTER THAT IT IS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN TIMING OF ANY SHORTWAVES THAT MAY
RIDE OVER WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO OUR AREA.  GFS NOT A LOT OF HELP
WITH THE DETAILS AS IT CONTINUALLY SUFFERS WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN 3-4 INCH
BULLSEYES OF RAIN. THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA APPEARS TO HAVE BEST
CHANCE WED NIGHT FOR RAIN AS MCS MAY DEVELOP IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND
PUSHES SE. CANNOT RULE OUT RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AFTER
THAT...BUT WITHOUT ANY CLEAR INDICATION OF TIMING OF NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEMS...WILL LEAVE KEEP REST OF EXTENDED PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.

WED AND THURSDAY APPEAR TO BE THE COOLEST DAYS AS WE STAY IN
NLY-NELY FLOW BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUES.  GRADUAL WARMUP
TOWARDS END OF WEEK WITH AMOUNT OF HEAT DEPENDENT UPON HOW WELL
UPPER RIDGE CAN BUILD INTO THE PLAINS...OR WILL HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN HOLD ITS POSITION A LITTLE LONGER...KEEPING US COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF. PRIMARY CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BEGINNING THIS EVENING. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD
FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH DRAW NEARER TO THE TERMINAL AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL GET INTO THE TERMINAL
AREA AFTER 02Z. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH AROUND THIS SAME
TIME AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM GUSTS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO WILL GET RID OF ANY THUNDERSTORM TEMPO GROUPS AFTER 08Z
ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT PRECIP AFTER THIS TIME.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

KB/EWALD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1110 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

NEZ039>041-046-047-060-061-072-073-082-091200-
VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-SHERMAN-HOWARD-DAWSON-BUFFALO-GOSPER-PHELPS-
FURNAS-
1110 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM FULLERTON TO GRAND ISLAND TO
BEAVER CITY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 6 PM. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE STRONGER STORMS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN AN INTERMITTENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 6 PM.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ048-049-062>064-074>077-083>087-091200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-MERRICK-POLK-HALL-
HAMILTON-YORK-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-WEBSTER-
NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
1110 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM FULLERTON TO GRAND
ISLAND TO BEAVER CITY...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY AFTER 8 PM.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT A FEW ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF A DIME AND
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH THE PRIMARY THREATS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE BENEATH THE STRONGER STORMS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN AN INTERMITTENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF A GENEVA TO BEAVER CITY LINE...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

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