Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
622 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007

.AVIATION...APPEARS THAT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
TERMINAL LOCATION TONIGHT...SO DID NOT PUT THEM IN AT THIS TIME.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBLITY OF LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW TEMPERATURE
AND DEWPOINT SPREADS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT VERY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REFLECTION ROUGHLY VICINITY OF
HIGHWAY 30 FROM THE COLUMBUS NEBRASKA AREA BACK TO MAYBE HOLDREGE OR
SO. PRETTY HARD TO DISCERN. WHAT STANDS OUT WELL IS 3K+ CAPE ALONG
THIS SAME AREA...AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 65 TO 72 DEGREES PERSIST.
LAPSE DATA SUGGEST NO CAP IN PLACE. CU FIELD WIDESPREAD...WITH HINTS
OF MORE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN CU EAST OF HEBRON NEBRASKA...AND
FROM YORK TO OMAHA. PROFILER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVER CWFA LEFT OVER FROM LAST NIGHT. H5-3 WINDS ARE MUCH
STRONGER /RELATIVELY/ TO OUR EAST OVER IOWA PER SLATER PROFILER.

FORECAST CONCERN IS AMOUNT OF CONVECTION TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE HAPPENING. WHAT IS GOING ON IS WELL EAST...OVER
IOWA. CONVECTION IS GOING OVER THERE. THE RUC DOES FORECAST INCREASING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY JUST EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. DON/T
EXPECT CURRENT MONTANA WAVE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER...SO WE WORK
WITH WHAT WE HAVE. THAT IS A HIGH CAP/WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWFA. SEEMS MORE LIKELY WE WILL GET SOME
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE EASTERN CWFA...AND POSSIBLY
UNZIPPING A BIT WESTWARD. HAVE KEPT SMALL RISK THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...JUST SORT OF WAITING FOR SOMETHING TO DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED
PULSE WEAKLY SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET WITH SUCH HIGH
CAPES...BUT OVERALL SCOPE OF THINGS VERY LIMITED. IF TSTORMS DO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE ONSET OF SUNSET WILL START TO SHUT THINGS DOWN
AND DO BY DAWN SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY...SOME HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS/HAZE WILL BE AROUND
EARLY...AND THEN SUNSHINE WILL TAKE OVER. RETURN FLOW SLOW TO SET UP
AND EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BALLPARK THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW DEGREES WARMER WEST/SOUTHWEST
CWFA. DON/T SEE ANY REAL REASON FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT TEMPERATURES DURING
THE DAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 90F...AND MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.  THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH TRANSLATES ALONG THE US AND CANADIAN BORDER...SENDING A COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND ONTO THE PLAINS.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY AND TROUGH WILL
GET AS IT IMPEDES THE RIDGE...HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS TO THE
FORECAST.  GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOT OVERLY ROBUST ON INDICATING PCPN
THRU THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THEREFORE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY AND CAN BE EVALUATED ON A DAY BY DAY BASIS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
305 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007

NEZ039-040-231200-
VALLEY-GREELEY-
305 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE OUTLOOK
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ041-046>049-060>062-072>075-082>085-231200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-NANCE-SHERMAN-HOWARD-
MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-
FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-WEBSTER-
305 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE DIME SIZE HAIL AND 50 MPH
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

NEZ063-064-076-077-086-087-231200-
HAMILTON-YORK-CLAY-FILLMORE-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
305 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH
HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND 60 MPH WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THE INTENSITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

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