Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1058 PM CST TUE NOV 13 2007

.AVIATION...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME
MUCH STRONGER DURING THE MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KTS BY LATE MORNING...BUT THAT MAY NOT EVEN BE HIGH
ENOUGH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TOWARDS EARLY EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST TUE NOV 13 2007/

SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO
REVEAL A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS.
HOWEVER...ONE MAJOR EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE IS SEEN ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS PAST MORNING UPPER AIR
DATA SHOWS A 160+ KT UPPER JET STREAK CARVING OUT A POTENT UPPER
WAVE.  REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THIS UPPER WAVE IS
PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE
FRONT SEEN STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.  LOOKING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...3 HOUR PRESSURE
RISES AROUND 6 TO 7 MB ARE SEEN ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
EASTERN WYOMING.  THIS IS PRODUCING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AND THIS LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

THE UPPER WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST TONIGHT AND
STRETCH FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KICK THE COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS THE COLD
FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WHILE PRESSURE READINGS JUMP FAST.
THE NOCTURNAL TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH
OF WIND SPEEDS...BUT FULLY ANTICIPATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20 TO 25 MPH THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE OTHER
QUESTION IS IF THIS FRONT CAN SQUEEZE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...TAKING A LOOK AT SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND THE
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SYSTEM...THE
LOWER 10K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY. THIS SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A NICE VIRGA EVENT WITH LITTLE ELSE RESULTING BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY IS THEN SHAPING UP TO BE A COLD AND VERY WINDY DAY ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 0 C TO -2
C BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING TO AROUND 10 ABOVE GENERALLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.  GIVEN THIS AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NEAR ORD TO THE MID 50S NEAR BELOIT.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO DROP HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 20S BY MID AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AND DO HAVE SOME
CONCERN THAT CONDITIONS COULD MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA.  WILL HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE OTHER
PROBLEM FOR WEDNESDAY INVOLVES THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD
DESPITE THE BIGGEST PRESSURE RISE ALREADY MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.  HOWEVER...WITH MIXING CONDITIONS UP TO 750MB
POSSIBLE...MOMENTUM TRANSFER OFF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS REVEAL WIND
SPEEDS POSSIBLY HIGH ENOUGH TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS
POTENTIAL IS SHAKY ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY...BUT
THIS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY.

LONG TERM...12Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
WILL BE TEMPERATURES.

AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL INCREASE. EXPECT THAT THE TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SOME FROM HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. ON FRIDAY THERE WILL BE WARM
ADVECTION...SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING...WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS...PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES AT 850MB INCREASE ALMOST 8 DEG C FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY THAN ON THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD AIR MOVES IN
SLOWLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES COOL OFF AGAIN SOME ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO HAVE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SHORT WAVE...MODELS ARE TRYING TO PUT IN
SOME PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY
FORECAST SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS NEAR
THE SURFACE AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE
SURFACE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME SPRINKLES MAYBE...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO BE A PROBLEM.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WINDS ONCE AGAIN TURN TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP AGAIN FOR
MONDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
UP AGAIN. MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON BRINGING THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE COOLER AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&