Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Hastings, NE

Jewell County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Smith County, KS, Adams County, NE, Buffalo County, NE, Clay County, NE, Dawson County, NE, Fillmore County, NE, Franklin County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Gosper County, NE, Greeley County, NE, Hall County, NE, Hamilton County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Howard County, NE, Kearney County, NE, Merrick County, NE, Nance County, NE, Nuckolls County, NE, Phelps County, NE, Polk County, NE, Sherman County, NE, Thayer County, NE, Valley County, NE, Webster County, NE, York County, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
322 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.DISCUSSION...FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO
SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST INTO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING.  CONVECTION WAS MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE EAST
OF THE MAIN LINE...AND OVERALL EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AIDED BY A 50 TO 60KT LOWLEVEL JET AND
OUR WESTERN CWA IS IN AN AXIS OF MU CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG.

EXPECT CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN THIS MORNING...WITH A LULL FOR A
FEW HOURS...THEN REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN CWA AROUND
21Z.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN IDAHO WHICH WILL PUSH EAST INTO WYOMING DURING
THE DAY.  AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY...THETA E RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.  SURFACE DPS INCREASE TO THE LOW TO MID
60S...WHILE H85 DPS AVERAGE NEAR 15C.  SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE
PROGGED NEAR 3000 J/KG ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA WITH LITTLE OR
WEAKENING CIN.  LOWLEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AVERAGES 30 TO
40KTS WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AVERAGING 40 TO 50KTS.  CONVECTIVE MODE
SHOULD FAVOR LINEAR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVERALL...AND DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.  A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ON THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LINE OR JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE...PARTICULARLY IN OUR
SOUTHWEST CWA IN ENHANCED AREA OF INSTABILITY IN PROXIMITY TO THE
SURFACE LOW POSITION...AND TOR THREAT CANNOT BE COMPLETLEY RULED
OUT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING TSTM ACTIVITY IN MOISTURE RICH REGIME WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OR 100 TO 150 PERCENT OF
NORMAL.

IN ADDITION TODAY...TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND GOOD MIXING REGIME WILL RESULT IN VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN CORRIDOR
OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING
POTENTIAL TO H85 OR ABOVE TODAY...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS SLOWED...THEREBY
GIVING A LONGER DURATION FOR PCPN CHANCES WHICH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES.  STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS INDICATED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
THE H85 TO H7 LAYER AND THE H85 TO H5 LAYER...PARTICULARLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES IN PROXIMITY TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE GFS IS MORE
ROBUST IN DEPICTING THIS THAN THE NAM...HOWEVER IT IS SUPPORTED BY
SREF...UKMET...AND THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS HAVE SEEMED TO VERIFY
BETTER LATELY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TWEAKED SLIGHTLY WITH AN OVERALL PREFERENCE
TO REMAIN BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION...LINE OF STORMS HAS A CHANCE OF MAKING IS FAR ENOUGH
EAST IN A FEW HOURS TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. I LIKE THE SLOWER GFS
SOLUTION FOR ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION FOR TOMORROW AND WENT WITH A
LATER ARRIVAL OF 00Z IN THE TAF. ONCE STORMS ARRIVE TUESDAY
EVENING...WIND COULD BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ064-076-077-085>087.

KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.

&&

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