Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
603 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING FROM PLANO...THROUGH
HAMILTON... TO FREDERICKSBURG. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116.  #58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007/

AVIATION...
BUBBLING CU INDICATE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ANY TIME NOW. HAVE
LEFT ANY RA/TS MENTION OUT OF METROPLEX...BUT WILL WATCH THIS
CLOSELY AS THE EVENING EVOLVES. BETTER BET FOR TSRA WILL BE AT
WACO BETWEEN 05 AND 12Z AS SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS ALONG COLD FRONT.
WIND SHIFT WILL COME THRU METROPLEX TAF SITES SOON...BUT GUSTY
NE WINDS WILL ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER...AROUND 05Z. GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE BEFORE DYING DOWN TOMORROW MIDDAY. BKN-OVC VFR
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP
TOMORROW MIDDAY AS WELL.  /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007/

DISCUSSION...

AFTERNOON SOUNDING CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. IF THE CAP IS BROKEN...THERE IS
AMPLE ENERGY AND INSTABILITY ALOFT TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. FORECASTED HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF CWA THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT TAPS INTO THE
MOISTURE. ANTICIPATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
REGION.

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. I AGREE WITH COOLING TREND AS WINDS QUICKLY PICK UP OUT OF
THE NORTH AFTER FROPA. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY FOR A FEW DAYS...BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATER IN
THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...SO WILL HAVE 20 TO 30 POPS IN FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS TOWARD END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  52  65  47  62  44 /  30  10  10  10  20
WACO, TX              57  67  49  66  47 /  40  20  10  10  20
PARIS, TX             49  64  45  61  43 /  40  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            51  65  46  62  42 /  20  10  10  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          51  66  46  62  43 /  30  10  10  10  20
DALLAS, TX            52  65  47  62  45 /  30  10  10  10  20
TERRELL, TX           54  66  47  64  46 /  40  10  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         57  67  49  65  46 /  40  20  10  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            57  68  51  66  49 /  40  20  10  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

13/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
735 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-041200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
735 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF NORTH TEXAS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STORMS HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
PARIS...TO AZLE...TO COMANCHE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

BY MIDNIGHT AND AFTER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH. GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MAKE AREA LAKES VERY CHOPPY ON OPEN WATERS AND
CAUSE CROSSWIND PROBLEMS ON EAST TO WEST ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY MORNING SOUTH OF A
LAMPASAS...WACO...ATHENS LINE...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND INSTABILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
TONIGHT.

13

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