Severe Thunderstorm Warning 356, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
609 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.UPDATE...
AS OF 11Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED JUST SOUTHEAST OF A
GAINESVILLE...DECATUR...TO ABILENE LINE. THIS POSITION IS FASTER
THAN ANY OF THE MODELS HAD EARLIER INDICATED...SO HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. #58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007/

AVIATION...
600 AM CDT

OUTFLOW QUICKLY APPROACHING METRO TAF SITES. SWITCH TO NORTH FLOW
NEEDED AT DFW. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY...WITH SOME CHAOTIC WIND IN AND NEAR STORMS. WITH PRECIP AND
OUTFLOW IN ADVANCE OF FROPA...FRONT MAY BECOME DIFFICULT TO DISCERN.

LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED.
ORIENTATION OF LINE AND NORTHEASTWARD CELL MOTION WILL FAVOR
TRAINING AND POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED DISRUPTION TO OPERATIONS THIS
MORNING. AT METRO SITES...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF
AROUND MIDDAY AS MAIN BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH.

ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION AT WACO WILL BE LATER IN THE MORNING AND WILL
LINGER LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM ERRATIC WIND DIRECTION
IN/NEAR STORMS...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT ARRIVE AT WACO UNTIL
SUNSET. 25

PREV DISCUSSION...
358 AM CDT

THE 08Z ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EXTENDED SOUTHEAST
OF A NOCONA....TO GRAHAM....TO ABILENE LINE. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT...AND THIS IS MENTIONED IN THE ZONES AND
WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE BEFORE DAYBREAK ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY AND ENDING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE BEST LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FARTHER NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH TEXAS...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE TO OUR NORTH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. #58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  62  85  69  85 /  90  40  10  10  30
WACO, TX              81  65  86  71  88 /  80  50  10  10  30
PARIS, TX             74  59  83  66  84 / 100  50  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            75  57  85  68  86 /  80  30  10  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          76  57  85  68  85 / 100  40  10  10  30
DALLAS, TX            77  64  85  69  85 /  90  40  10  10  30
TERRELL, TX           79  64  85  69  86 /  90  50  10  10  30
CORSICANA, TX         79  65  85  69  88 /  90  60  20  10  30
TEMPLE, TX            83  64  87  70  88 /  80  50  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

25/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
500 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-161100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
500 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE AREA OF
GREATEST THREAT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTH TEXAS.

HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE MAIN HAZARD
APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ISSUES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY...WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 4 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS.

25

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