Severe Thunderstorm Warning 343, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.UPDATE...
UPDATING THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS IN
CONVECTION...SKY...AND DEWPOINTS. OBJECTIVE LOCAL ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CWA...WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NW ZONES. THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED
POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. KEPT THE 30-50 PERCENT POPS GOING
ACROSS THE NW ZONES AND ALONG THE FIRST COUPLE ROWS OF COUNTIES
NEAR THE RED RIVER. BROUGHT THE CHANCE POPS SOUTH TO THE I-20
CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FRONT SAGS DOWN. BULK SHEAR WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING AS JET STREAK COMES ACROSS AND ALLOW FOR
BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION...WHICH MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS. TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007/

AVIATION...
WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF KFTW AND KAFW...DRIFTING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST. IT SHOULD BRING A WIND SHIFT TO KFTW AND KAFW BUT MAY NOT
REACH KDFW AND KDAL. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD WORK THROUGH KACT AROUND 11Z.

AS FOR CONVECTION...MOST SHOULD STAY WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH FOR THE MOST PART AFTERWARD.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT A TSRA WOULD MOVE WITHIN 10NM OF ANY ONE
OF OUR  METROPLEX SITES THROUGH 08Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTION TRENDS AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. 75

PREV DISCUSSION...
400 PM CDT.
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE PRIMARILY IN
OKLAHOMA. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN FWD CWA AHEAD OF PREFRONTAL
TROUGH. MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL DOMINATING AREAS TO THE SOUTH. BULK
OF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

EXPECT WINDS TO WEAKEN BEHIND PRIMARY FRONT...BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FILTERING INTO CWA OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN VICINITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE BEST ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-20. DECENT MOISTURE...THOUGH WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT
EXTENT OF CONVECTION. LINGERING BOUNDARY WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES
(PRIMARILY EAST) THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRONT MAY FAIL TO CLEAR CWA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT NORTHERLY SFC FLOW
SHOULD DOMINATE THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH BACKDOORS INTO NORTH TEXAS.
IMPULSES IN NW FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY. INTRODUCED
POPS IN SE WHERE BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE LOOK BEST. RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THEREAFTER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  86  67  88  68 /  30  30  10  10  10
WACO, TX              70  89  68  89  66 /  10  20  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             67  84  64  88  62 /  50  40  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            68  85  66  88  63 /  40  30  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  85  65  88  64 /  40  30  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            72  86  67  88  70 /  20  30  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           70  87  67  89  65 /  20  30  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         70  90  68  89  68 /  10  30  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            71  90  68  90  67 /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
735 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

TXZ094-260100-
FANNIN TX-
735 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN FANNIN COUNTY

AT 735 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF BONHAM...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3388 9589 3383 9585 3376 9585 3365 9612
      3377 9620 3378 9618 3383 9618 3385 9615
      3386 9603 3390 9594
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 239DEG 10KT 3377 9608

SCHULTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
757 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

TXZ094-260130-
FANNIN TX-
757 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN FANNIN COUNTY

AT 757 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF BONHAM...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3372 9620 3386 9608 3386 9606 3386 9604
      3381 9585 3356 9585
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 316DEG 11KT 3374 9608

SCHULTZ