Severe Thunderstorm Warning 330, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1224 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2007

.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FCST WITH VFR CONDS PVLG. WEAK LOW LVL
SWLY ON VWP MAKING THINGS A LITTLE DRIER DOWN LOW...HOWEVER BNDY
STILL ANCHORED NEAR RED RIVER WHERE ISOLD TS/SRHA ONGOING FROM
KSPS TO KGLE. MODELS HAVE DIFF SCENARIOS...BUT MOST ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NEAR RED RIVER WITH WK E/SELY STEERING CURRENTS.
SEE ENOUGH TO ADD BKN VFR/CB MNTN D/FW AREA 20Z-01Z TIME FRAME.

OTRW...NO ACTIVITY KACT VCNTY...THO BETTER LOW LVL MSTR SHD LEND
TO OCNL BKN040/LOW VFR. OTRW...PD AFTR 12Z FOR MORE SUSTAINED SW
WINDS 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2007/

UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM A DYING
COMPLEX APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT THEY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. 14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC
BOUNDARY STILL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...AND THERE MAY BE SOME LEFT
OVER BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION AROUND. SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT WILL BE VERY WEAK TO NONEXISTENT TODAY...BUT MESOSCALE
FORCING ALONG BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. ADDED SOME 20 POPS TO THE NORTHWEST FOR
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...AND WILL RAISE TO 20 PERCENT FOR THE
RED RIVER COUNTIES. WILL KEEP THE 10 POPS EVERYWHERE ELSE AND
MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER
THROUGH THE DAY.

91/DUNN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2007/

NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. SOME TEMPORARY CEILINGS BETWEEN
4000 AND 5000 FT ARE EXPECTED AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. WACO SHOULD EVEN SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN THIS
TAF PACKAGE. A LIGHT WIND EARLY WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2007/

AFTER THREE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 24 HOURS...NORTH TEXAS
WAS QUIET THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT
DISORGANIZED FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS PRECLUDED ANY
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM RECENT
ACTIVITY MAY HELP REALIZE TREMENDOUS INSTABILITY LATER TODAY.
ELEVATED HUMIDITY AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESULT IN
HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES. SOME LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLD OF 105 DEGREES...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE BOTH
TODAY AND THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY NOT MEET
CRITERIA...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN INNER URBAN AREAS. NOT CERTAIN
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...SO WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ADVISORY.

A HEALTHIER SOUTHERLY FETCH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR A NOCTURNAL MCS TO AFFECT NORTHERN ZONES
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MAIN EVENT WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. GFS CONSIDERABLE OUTLIER WITH SLOW FROPA. MODEL CONSENSUS
OF FROPA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY IS FAVORED WITH NW FLOW AND
UNSEASONALLY STRONG SFC HIGH BEHIND BOUNDARY. SVR THREAT WILL BE
ASSESSED AS EVENT APPROACHES...BUT EXPECT ONGOING NOCTURNAL EVENT
FRIDAY MORNING MAY BLEND IN WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION. BOUNDARY MAY
TRANSLATE SOUTH WITH PRECIP AND OUTFLOW COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER IN
WARM SECTOR. MILDER TEMPERATURES...THOUGH CERTAINLY NOT COOL...
WILL REPLACE THE MT AIR MASS THAT HAS DOMINATED NORTH TEXAS FOR
WEEKS. DECREASED DEW POINTS WILL BE THE MOST NOTICEABLE IMPACT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE AFFECTING NORTH
TEXAS SUNDAY. THE ENSUING WEAKNESS MAY RESULT IN PROLONGED
TROUGHINESS NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A STRONG SIGNAL WORKING AGAINST
SIGNIFICANT CLIMATOLOGICAL FORCING IN THE MODEL SCHEMES. THESE
SOLUTIONS ARE TO BE TRUSTED AS PERSISTENCE FORECASTING TRUMPS
CLIMO IN OUR CURRENT SITUATION. UPPER RIDGING AND SUMMER HEAT IS
SOMEWHAT OF A CHICKEN-OR-EGG CONCEPT. SFC HEATING INDUCES RIDGING
WHILE RIDGING RESULTS IN STRONG SFC HEATING. WITH ABUNDANT
PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH...THE RIDGE IS
LESS LIKELY TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. WHILE HUMIDITY AND SUMMER
WARMTH WILL ASSURE IT IS INDEED JULY...EXCESSIVE HEAT AND TRIPLE-
DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON HOLD FOR A WHILE. 25

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  77  96  77  91 /  10  10  10  10  30
WACO, TX              95  76  96  75  93 /  10  10  10  10  20
PARIS, TX             92  74  93  73  90 /  20  20  20  20  40
DENTON, TX            94  75  95  75  91 /  20  10  10  10  30
MCKINNEY, TX          93  73  94  74  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
DALLAS, TX            96  78  96  78  92 /  10  10  10  10  30
TERRELL, TX           94  76  95  76  91 /  10  10  10  10  30
CORSICANA, TX         94  76  95  75  92 /  10  10  10  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            95  76  95  76  93 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

91/25/06

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
308 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2007

TXZ093>095-106-112030-
GRAYSON TX-LAMAR TX-FANNIN TX-DELTA TX-
308 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  FANNIN COUNTY
  GRAYSON COUNTY
  DELTA COUNTY
  LAMAR COUNTY

AT 307 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BREWING ALONG THE RED RIVER COUNTIES.
MOST OF THE STORMS ARE NOT MOVING VERY MUCH...THUS MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.  THE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
UP TO 1/2 INCH AND STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BAILEY...BELLS...BLOSSOM...
BONHAM...COLLINSVILLE...COOPER...DENISON...DEPORT...DODD CITY...
DORCHESTER...ECTOR...GUNTER...HONEY GROVE...HOWE...KNOLLWOOD...
PARIS...POTTSBORO...SAVOY...SHERMAN...TOM BEAN...WHITESBORO...
WHITEWRIGHT...HENDRIX...EISENHOWER STATE PARK...BONHAM STATE PARK AND
COOPER LAKE PARK DOCTORS CREEK.

LAT...LON 3343 9694 3343 9638 3336 9636 3343 9585
      3329 9581 3342 9529 3398 9530 3392 9692