Severe Thunderstorm Warning 328, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
551 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

.AVIATION...
STORMS TO NE SHOULD STAY THERE BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR OUTFLOW
REACHING THE METROPLEX PER CWSU DISCUSSION. WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG
THE RED RIVER WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT A LITTLE MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVER THE METROPLEX IN THE
11-14Z TIME FRAME. TEMPO GROUP USED TO INDICATE THE PATCHY NATURE OF
THE FOG. MOISTURE IN WACO WILL BE EVEN THINNER AND DO NOT EXPECT A
CIG TO FORM. EXPECT VFR CIGS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.  /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007/

DISCUSSION...COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LEFT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN ITS WAKE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. REMNANT BOUNDARY
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION LIES SOMEWHERE NORTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH A
COUPLE OF SMALLER BOUNDARIES NOTED ON THE 88D NORTH OF THE
METROPLEX. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A BUILDUP OF CU
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE PANHANDLE WITH A FEW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING NW OF PARIS. AFTN AIRMASS HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
AND SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT ALONG THE RED RIVER. AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP FARTHER WEST ACROSS PARTS OF SW
OKLAHOMA/TX PANHANDLE. LATEST LOW LEVEL WIND PROGS SUGGEST THAT
ANOTHER OVERNIGHT COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE SLIDING DOWN WED NITE. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS LLJ
INCREASES...MAINLY TO OUR WEST TO 20-30KTS. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW THE COMPLEX TO MAKE A RUN AT OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO MOVE DOWN FRIDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING PEAK HEATING FRI AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SPREAD ON
THE TIMING...BUT THINK ANOTHER SHOT FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION COMES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

UNFORTUNATELY TIMING OF THESE COMPLEXES IS DIFFICULT...AND NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN EACH DAY...BUT AS LONG AS THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
GENERATE A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO OUR NORTH WITH EACH PASSING
DISTURBANCE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS ALSO SPLIT ON WHAT HAPPENS
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. GFS WANTS TO BE SLOW WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
AN UPPER LOW...WHILE THE EURO IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. FOR NOW...WILL
FAVOR THE FASTER EURO...AND MAINTAIN SOME AFTERNOON POPS...MAINLY
IN THE EAST AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR MEDIUM RANGE TRENDS.

ALSO TO NOTE...IN AREAS THAT DONT HAVE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR 105.

SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR RED RIVER COUNTIES UNTIL 10 PM.
SEE WCNFWD FOR LATEST INFO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  96  77  96 /  30  30  30  10
WACO, TX              76  95  76  96 /  10  20  20  10
PARIS, TX             73  92  74  93 /  50  40  20  20
DENTON, TX            75  95  75  95 /  30  40  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          74  94  73  94 /  40  40  20  20
DALLAS, TX            77  96  78  96 /  30  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           75  94  76  95 /  30  30  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         75  94  77  95 /  20  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            76  95  76  95 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

58/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
430 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
430 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A
COMANCHE...TO HILLSBORO...TO ATHENS LINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER
VICINITY...WHERE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE...TO HILLSBORO...TO
SULPHUR SPRINGS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 100 TO 105
DEGREES EACH DAY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20
THROUGH TONIGHT.

13