Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
610 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

.AVIATION...
MCS CONTINUES TO BARREL SOUTHEAST AND IS JUST CROSSING INTO NORTH
TEXAS. EXTRAPOLATION SHOWS COMPLEX REACHING THE METROPLEX BY 13Z.
THESE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY NOT SEVERE...BUT WILL HAVE HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING THEM. CIGS MAY DROP AS LOW AS IFR AS
THIS HAPPEN...BUT WILL REBOUND TO VFR BY MID-MORNING. CURRENTLY
BELIEVE STORMS WILL WEAKEN SOON AFTER DAYBREAK AND DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO REACH WACO...BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY...CAUSING WINDS TO
VEER TO THE WEST. AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH...IT WILL BECOME
ILL-DEFINED. NORTH TEXAS WILL BE LEFT IN A COL WITH WINDS DROPPING
BELOW 5 KTS. A PRECIP EVENT SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR TOMORROW MORNING...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SITUATED SOUTH
OF THE METROPLEX ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. THEREFORE HAVE
PLACED PROB 30 GROUP IN LAST FEW HOURS OF WACOS TAF.  /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007/

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS BEFORE SUNRISE. IT APPEARS
THAT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ACROSS WEST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THAT
REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS SHOULD WORK INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THE BEST RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
IN SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE TRANSLATES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

WEST TEXAS MAY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER NOCTURNAL MCS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...BUT IT APPEARS THAT NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE
LITTLE AFFECTS OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVER NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND
BRING RAIN FREE AND WARMER CONDITIONS. FORECASTED THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT MIDDLE 90S WILL RETURN
TO MUCH OF THE REGION BY MID WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE A TROUGH SLOWLY DEVELOPS IN
THE WEST. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. THEREFORE...WILL
KEEP RAIN FREE AND WARM CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  88  69  91  69 /  30  40  20  10
WACO, TX              90  70  92  68 /  30  50  30  10
PARIS, TX             85  64  87  64 /  30  20  20  10
DENTON, TX            87  65  91  65 /  30  30  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          88  65  88  64 /  30  30  20  10
DALLAS, TX            89  70  91  70 /  30  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           89  67  91  67 /  30  30  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         89  69  89  69 /  30  40  30  10
TEMPLE, TX            90  70  91  68 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

13/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-041100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
330 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY.
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT THERE IS AN ISOLATED
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. MORE COMMON THREATS INCLUDE WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN IN THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
625 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

TXZ100-101-031200-
JACK TX-YOUNG TX-
625 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  JACK COUNTY
  YOUNG COUNTY

AT 625 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES WEST OF
BOWIE TO 13 MILES WEST OF GRAHAM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BRYSON...GRAHAM AND
JACKSBORO.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3358 9813 3303 9894 3295 9893 3301 9792
      3339 9792

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
707 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

TXZ102-031230-
WISE TX-
707 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WISE COUNTY

AT 707 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRIDGEPORT...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ALVORD...BRIDGEPORT...CHICO
AND DECATUR.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3343 9791 3318 9791 3309 9762 3342 9744

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
724 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

TXZ115-116-129-130-031300-
PALO PINTO TX-STEPHENS TX-EASTLAND TX-ERATH TX-
724 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN EASTLAND COUNTY
  NORTHWESTERN ERATH COUNTY
  PALO PINTO COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN STEPHENS COUNTY

AT 724 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MINERAL WELLS TO 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF RANGER TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF EASTLAND...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE EASTLAND...GORDON...
GRAFORD AND RANGER.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3299 9832 3275 9871 3228 9900 3232 9823
      3274 9812 3299 9805

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