Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
851 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

.AVIATION...
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT EXTENDED NORTHWEST OF A KADM...KRPH...
KABI LINE AS OF 0130Z...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES FARTHER EAST...IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO LESS
UNSTABLE AIR. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT METROPLEX TAF SITES
AFTER 05Z...BUT THE WORST OF THE STORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST
OF THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS OF 01Z.
EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH
TEXAS...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY AFFECT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
TOWARD DAYBREAK. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z
IN THE WACO AREA AND SPREAD NORTH INTO THE METROPLEX BY 09Z.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
#58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007/

AVIATION...
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXTENDED FROM KSPS....TO 40 NW OF KABI
AS 0015Z...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT METROPLEX TAF SITES AFTER 0330Z.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THAT MAY AFFECT
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES TOWARD DAYBREAK. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z IN THE WACO AREA AND SPREAD NORTH INTO THE
METROPLEX BY 09Z. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY...OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. #58

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007/

UPDATE...
600 PM CDT

UPDATE TO INCLUDE SVA 325. ALSO INCREASED POPS IN NW ZONES...AND
INCLUDED MENTION OF SVR/+RA WHERE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT. 25

PREV DISCUSSION...
318 PM CDT

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN INHIBITED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...
POSSIBLY BECAUSE OF INCREASING CAP. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AND LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT (MCS) JUST
TO W AND NW OF FWD CWA. MCS-GENESIS IS APPARENTLY UNDERWAY WITH
LARGE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM JUST SOUTH OF CHILDRESS AT THIS TIME.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS REGION OF LARGE
SCALE LIFT MOVES OVER FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY NEXT 12-18 HOURS WILL BE THE
POTENTIALLY SEVERE MCS THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. EXACT TRACK STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT CURRENT
PROPAGATION VECTORS AND THICKNESS LINES SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE MCS WILL TRACK FROM ROUGHLY BRECKENRIDGE TO DFW TO CANTON
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE RED
RIVER COUNTIES AND TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE DFW METROPLEX AND THEN
SLIGHT CHANCE AT WACO. WILL MENTION THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BRECKENRIDGE-DFW-CANTON LINE.
MORE DETAILS ON STORM THREATS TO BE OUTLINED IN HWOFWD PRODUCT.

MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST
ZONES...AND WILL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THE MORNING. SUBSEQUENT
AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LESS CERTAIN
SINCE MOST OF NORTH TEXAS MAY BE IN SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. WILL CARRY ONLY CHANCE POPS INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES.

REPEAT MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH INITIATION MOST
LIKELY WEST OF CWA...AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND
ALSO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES FOR THESE PERIODS...BUT THERE IS TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION AND TIMING TO GO MUCH HIGHER THAN
40-50 POPS IN ANY PERIOD.

AFTER A CHANCE OF STORMS TUESDAY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...STILL
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASED MID LEVEL
RIDGING AHEAD OF A WESTERN U.S. TROUGH LIKELY TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION. HOWEVER... ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITIES WILL BE LIKELY AND MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD MAY BE THE
FIRST ROUND OF SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS FOR NORTH TEXAS. /09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  82  67  88  69 /  50  40  30  30  40
WACO, TX              71  85  68  90  67 /  20  40  30  20  50
PARIS, TX             67  80  64  87  65 /  50  60  30  30  30
DENTON, TX            68  82  65  89  64 /  50  40  40  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          68  82  64  88  64 /  50  50  30  30  30
DALLAS, TX            69  82  69  88  69 /  50  40  30  30  40
TERRELL, TX           69  81  67  88  69 /  40  40  30  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         69  83  67  88  69 /  30  40  30  20  40
TEMPLE, TX            70  87  68  90  69 /  20  40  30  20  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

58/58/58

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
818 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

TXZ101-116-020145-
JACK TX-PALO PINTO TX-
818 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  JACK COUNTY
  PALO PINTO COUNTY

AT 818 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 23 MILES
NORTH OF JACKSBORO TO 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRECKENRIDGE...MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

ON ITS PRESENT COURSE THESE STORMS WILL ENTER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PALO PINTO AND JACK COUNIES THROUGH 9 PM AFFECTING BRYSON...GORDON
...GRAFORD...JACKSBORO...MINERAL WELLS AND BOATERS ON POSSUM
KINGDOM LAKE.

IF THIS STORM CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT COURSE...A SEVERE WEATHER
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3342 9838 3299 9842 3252 9858 3255 9808
      3343 9794

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