Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY AND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD
STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES.  IN ADDITION...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MCS EVENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. RIDGING ALOFT IS INDICATED FOR WEDNESDAY.

EVEN THOUGH LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING WAS CAPPED...LATE NIGHT CONVECTION
WAS THE RESULT OF CONVERGENCE ALONG AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY NEAR I-20.
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHEASTWARD...AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING. MOST CELLS HAVE BEEN HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS
OVERNIGHT...AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN FROM LAMPASAS TO
MERIDIAN...EASTWARD TO EAST OF I-35 THIS MORNING. PW/S WILL REMAIN
1 TO 1.50 INCHES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
FLOODING WILL REMAIN. MORE STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR...AND AGAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...LOCALIZED FLOODING AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

LESS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY...THEN DIURNAL BOUTS RETURN
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO SHORTWAVE ACTION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

MOS NUMBERS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD WITH UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
INDICATED SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SEEMS REASON AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT START TO INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  87  72  87  69  86 /  40  20  10  20  20
WACO, TX              88  70  87  69  87 /  60  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             85  69  86  67  83 /  30  20  10  10  20
DENTON, TX            85  71  86  68  85 /  40  20  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          85  69  86  67  84 /  40  20  10  20  20
DALLAS, TX            87  72  87  69  86 /  40  20  10  20  20
TERRELL, TX           86  70  87  69  85 /  40  20  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         88  70  87  69  86 /  30  20  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            89  70  88  69  87 /  60  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

79/75

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-011100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
330 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS.  STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALL STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.  THEREFORE...LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.  A FEW STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE
AND PRODUCE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON MONDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.

79

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
121 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

TXZ133-310645-
JOHNSON TX-
121 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTY

AT 121 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES WEST OF JOSHUA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GODLEY.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3233 9760 3236 9741 3255 9743 3256 9761

SCHULTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
141 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

TXZ131-132-310715-
HOOD TX-SOMERVELL TX-
141 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN HOOD COUNTY
  EASTERN SOMERVELL COUNTY

AT 141 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GRANBURY...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 5 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GLEN ROSE...GRANBURY AND
DINOSAUR VALLEY STATE PARK.

PEA-SIZED HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3252 9761 3245 9788 3213 9780 3223 9761

SCHULTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
152 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

TXZ143-310715-
HAMILTON TX-
152 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY

AT 152 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HAMILTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 5 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3174 9824 3160 9838 3144 9826 3161 9791

SCHULTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
218 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

TXZ131-132-144-310745-
HOOD TX-SOMERVELL TX-BOSQUE TX-
218 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN BOSQUE COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN HOOD COUNTY
  SOMERVELL COUNTY

AT 218 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GRANBURY...MOVING SOUTH AT
10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GLEN ROSE...IREDELL AND
DINOSAUR VALLEY STATE PARK.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3241 9760 3239 9781 3198 9790 3200 9746

DUNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
229 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     HAIL             10 NE GRANBURY          32.54N  97.67W
05/31/2007  E0.75 INCH       HOOD               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            IN CRESSON, TX. ALSO FLASH FLOODING FROM TORRENTIAL
            RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
237 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

TXZ143-157-310830-
HAMILTON TX-CORYELL TX-
237 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CORYELL COUNTY
  HAMILTON COUNTY

AT 237 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF HAMILTON.  ANOTHER STRONG STORM
WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF EVANT.  THESE STORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY TO
THE SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM. SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS LIKELY.

IF THESE STORMS INTENSIFY...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3147 9817 3148 9818 3143 9825 3169 9845
      3190 9802 3167 9785 3163 9788 3162 9785
      3171 9770 3133 9743 3108 9791

DUNN